Will the Republican Party win 193 seats in the 120th Congress? — Below 193
Open on Kalshi ↗Yes last at 21¢
The catch
Only the count on February 1, 2027 matters, not the election results.
“If the Republican Party has below 193 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
The Republican Party has fewer than 193 House seats on February 1, 2027.
“If the Republican Party has below 193 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Decided at the event on February 1, 2027
“The Expiration Date of the Contract shall be February 1 following the beginning of <term>, or the next date that data is available if it is not.” · contract terms ↗Counts as done when: House seat count as documented by Congress on February 1, 2027 at 10:00 AM ET
“The Expiration Value is the value of the Underlying as documented by the Source Agency on the Expiration Date at the Expiration time.” · contract terms ↗Decided by: United States Congress, congress.gov
“The Source Agency is the United States Congress” · contract terms ↗
Does not count
Independents who do not caucus with Republicans are not counted.
“Individuals caucusing with the Republicans will be included” · market rules ↗- Republicans win fewer than 193 seats in the November 2026 election but gain seats through special elections or party switches before February 1, 2027our reading
- Republicans have fewer than 193 seats on January 3, 2027 (when Congress convenes) but reach or exceed 193 by February 1, 2027our reading
- Republicans have fewer than 193 seats after February 1, 2027 due to resignations or party switchesour reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
WATCHThe venue keeps a right to review the outcome
“Before Settlement, Kalshi may, at its sole discretion, initiate the Market Outcome Review Process pursuant to Rule 6.3(c) of the Rulebook.” · contract terms ↗
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
This market resolves to Yes if the Republican Party has fewer than 193 House seats on February 1, 2027. Independents who caucus with Republicans are counted as Republicans.
What the rules leave open
Whether vacant seats are counted in the total or excluded from the count.
closest the rules come: “The Underlying for this Contract is the composition (identity and partisan membership of) the U.S. House of Representatives and the Senate on February 1 following the beginning of <term>.” · contract terms ↗What happens if congress.gov does not publish seat counts or is unavailable on February 1, 2027.
closest the rules come: “The Expiration Date of the Contract shall be February 1 following the beginning of <term>, or the next date that data is available if it is not.” · contract terms ↗