Will the Republican Party win 193-197 seats in the 120th Congress? — 193-197
Open on Kalshi ↗Yes last at 12¢
The catch
Only the count on February 1, 2027 matters, not the election result.
“If the Republican Party has between 193-197 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
The Republican Party has between 193 and 197 House seats on February 1, 2027.
“If the Republican Party has between 193-197 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Decided at the event on February 1, 2027
“If the Republican Party has between 193-197 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: The composition as documented by Congress on February 1, 2027 at 10:00 AM ET
“The Expiration Value is the value of the Underlying as documented by the Source Agency on the Expiration Date at the Expiration time.” · contract terms ↗Decided by: United States Congress
“The Source Agency is the United States Congress” · contract terms ↗
Does not count
Individuals who do not caucus with the Republicans are not counted, even if they are registered Republicans
“Individuals caucusing with the Republicans will be included” · market rules ↗Revisions to the composition made after February 1, 2027 are not counted
“Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.” · contract terms ↗- Republicans win 193-197 seats in the November 2026 election but the count changes by February 1, 2027 due to deaths, resignations, or special electionsour reading
- Republicans have exactly 192 or 198 seats on February 1, 2027our reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
WATCHThe venue keeps a right to review the outcome
“Before Settlement, Kalshi may, at its sole discretion, initiate the Market Outcome Review Process pursuant to Rule 6.3(c) of the Rulebook.” · contract terms ↗
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
If the Republican Party has between 193 and 197 House seats on February 1, 2027, the market resolves to Yes. Individuals who caucus with the Republicans are included in the count.
What the rules leave open
What happens if Congress.gov does not publish composition data on or after February 1, 2027
closest the rules come: “The Expiration Date of the Contract shall be February 1 following the beginning of <term>, or the next date that data is available if it is not.” · contract terms ↗How vacancies (unfilled seats) are counted in the total
closest the rules come: “The Underlying for this Contract is the composition (identity and partisan membership of) the U.S. House of Representatives and the Senate on February 1 following the beginning of <term>.” · contract terms ↗