Will the Republican Party win 198-202 seats in the 120th Congress? — 198-202
Open on Kalshi ↗Yes last at 15¢
Pays out only if
The Republican Party holds between 198 and 202 seats in the House of Representatives.
“If the Republican Party has between 198-202 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Decided at the event on February 1, 2027
“If the Republican Party has between 198-202 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: composition as documented by Congress on the Expiration Date
“The Expiration Value is the value of the Underlying as documented by the Source Agency on the Expiration Date at the Expiration time.” · contract terms ↗Decided by: United States Congress
“The Source Agency is the United States Congress” · contract terms ↗
Does not count
Revisions to seat composition made after February 1, 2027 at 10:00 AM ET are not counted
“Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.” · contract terms ↗- Republicans win exactly 197 or 203 seatsour reading
- Republicans hold 198-202 seats but composition changes after February 1 due to special elections or party switchesour reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
WATCHThe venue keeps a right to review the outcome
“Before Settlement, Kalshi may, at its sole discretion, initiate the Market Outcome Review Process pursuant to Rule 6.3(c) of the Rulebook.” · contract terms ↗
Read on 2026-09-11. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
If the Republican Party has between 198-202 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Individuals caucusing with the Republicans will be included.
What the rules leave open
How Congress.gov documents the seat composition is not specified (which page, report, or data format)
closest the rules come: “The Expiration Value is the value of the Underlying as documented by the Source Agency on the Expiration Date at the Expiration time.” · contract terms ↗What happens if an independent caucuses with Republicans but later stops caucusing with them before February 1
closest the rules come: “Individuals caucusing with either party will be included with them (e.g. an Independent who caucuses with a party, like Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders who caucuses with the Democrats, would be counted as a Democrat).” · contract terms ↗