Will the Republican Party win 203-207 seats in the 120th Congress? — 203-207
Open on Kalshi ↗Yes last at 13¢
Pays out only if
The Republican Party holds between 203 and 207 House seats on February 1, 2027.
“If the Republican Party has between 203-207 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Decided at the event on February 1, 2027
“If the Republican Party has between 203-207 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: composition documented by Congress on February 1, 2027 at 10:00 AM ET
“The Expiration Value is the value of the Underlying as documented by the Source Agency on the Expiration Date at the Expiration time.” · contract terms ↗Decided by: United States Congress, congress.gov
“The Source Agency is the United States Congress” · contract terms ↗
Does not count
- Republicans win exactly 202 or 208 seatsour reading
- Republicans hold 203-207 seats but composition changes after February 1, 2027our reading
- Republicans hold 203-207 seats but data is not yet available on congress.gov on February 1our reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
WATCHThe venue keeps a right to review the outcome
“Before Settlement, Kalshi may, at its sole discretion, initiate the Market Outcome Review Process pursuant to Rule 6.3(c) of the Rulebook.” · contract terms ↗
Read on 2026-09-11. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
If the Republican Party has between 203-207 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Individuals caucusing with the Republicans will be included.
What the rules leave open
Whether the count includes vacant seats previously held by Republicans or only filled seats.
closest the rules come: “The Underlying for this Contract is the composition (identity and partisan membership of) the U.S. House of Representatives and the Senate on February 1 following the beginning of <term>.” · contract terms ↗How seats are counted if there are contested elections or members-elect not yet sworn in.
closest the rules come: “The Expiration Value is the value of the Underlying as documented by the Source Agency on the Expiration Date at the Expiration time.” · contract terms ↗