Will the Republican Party win 208-212 seats in the 120th Congress? — 208-212
Open on Kalshi ↗Yes last at 12¢
The catch
Only the count on February 1, 2027 matters, not the election results.
“If the Republican Party has between 208-212 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
The Republican Party has between 208 and 212 House seats on February 1, 2027.
“If the Republican Party has between 208-212 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Decided at the event on February 1, 2027
“If the Republican Party has between 208-212 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: The count as documented by Congress on February 1, 2027 at 10:00 AM ET
“The Expiration Value is the value of the Underlying as documented by the Source Agency on the Expiration Date at the Expiration time.” · contract terms ↗Decided by: United States Congress, congress.gov
“The Source Agency is the United States Congress” · contract terms ↗
Does not count
- Republicans win 208-212 seats in the November 2026 election but the count changes before February 1, 2027our reading
- Republicans have 207 or 213 seats on February 1, 2027our reading
- Republicans have 208-212 seats on January 31 or February 2, 2027 but not on February 1our reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
WATCHThe venue keeps a right to review the outcome
“Before Settlement, Kalshi may, at its sole discretion, initiate the Market Outcome Review Process pursuant to Rule 6.3(c) of the Rulebook.” · contract terms ↗
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
If the Republican Party has between 208 and 212 House seats on February 1, 2027, the market resolves to Yes. Individuals who caucus with the Republicans are included in the count.
What the rules leave open
Whether vacancies (unfilled seats) reduce the Republican count or are simply not counted.
closest the rules come: “Individuals caucusing with either party will be included with them (e.g. an Independent who caucuses with a party, like Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders who caucuses with the Democrats, would be counted as a Democrat).” · contract terms ↗What time zone congress.gov uses to timestamp its data on February 1, 2027.
closest the rules come: “The Expiration time of the Contract shall be 10:00 AM ET.” · contract terms ↗