Will the Republican Party win 213-217 seats in the 120th Congress? — 213-217
Open on Kalshi ↗Yes last at 8¢
Pays out only if
The Republican Party has between 213 and 217 seats in the House of Representatives.
“If the Republican Party has between 213-217 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Decided at the event on February 1, 2027
“If the Republican Party has between 213-217 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: composition as documented by Congress on the Expiration Date
“The Expiration Value is the value of the Underlying as documented by the Source Agency on the Expiration Date at the Expiration time.” · contract terms ↗Decided by: United States Congress, congress.gov
“The Source Agency is the United States Congress” · contract terms ↗
Does not count
- Republicans win exactly 212 or 218 seatsour reading
- Republicans have 213-217 seats but composition changes after February 1, 2027our reading
- Republicans have 213-217 seats including independents who vote with them but don't formally caucus with themour reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
WATCHThe venue keeps a right to review the outcome
“Before Settlement, Kalshi may, at its sole discretion, initiate the Market Outcome Review Process pursuant to Rule 6.3(c) of the Rulebook.” · contract terms ↗
Read on 2026-09-11. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
If the Republican Party has between 213-217 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Individuals caucusing with the Republicans will be included.
What the rules leave open
Whether independents who vote with Republicans but don't formally caucus with them are counted.
closest the rules come: “Individuals caucusing with either party will be included with them (e.g. an Independent who caucuses with a party, like Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders who caucuses with the Democrats, would be counted as a Democrat).” · contract terms ↗How vacancies or contested seats are counted if any exist on February 1, 2027.
closest the rules come: “The Underlying for this Contract is the composition (identity and partisan membership of) the U.S. House of Representatives and the Senate on February 1 following the beginning of <term>.” · contract terms ↗