Will the Republican Party win 218-222 seats in the 120th Congress? — 218-222
Open on Kalshi ↗Yes last at 7¢
Pays out only if
The Republican Party has between 218 and 222 House seats on February 1, 2027.
“If the Republican Party has between 218-222 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Decided at the event on February 1, 2027
“If the Republican Party has between 218-222 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: As documented by the Source Agency on the Expiration Date at the Expiration time
“The Expiration Value is the value of the Underlying as documented by the Source Agency on the Expiration Date at the Expiration time.” · contract terms ↗Decided by: United States Congress
“The Source Agency is the United States Congress” · contract terms ↗
Does not count
Revisions to the seat count made after the Expiration Date (February 1, 2027) are not counted
“Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.” · contract terms ↗- Republicans win exactly 217 or 223 seats (just outside the range)our reading
- Republicans have 218-222 seats on January 31 but the count changes by February 1our reading
- Republicans have 218-222 seats but a revision after February 1 changes the countour reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
WATCHThe venue keeps a right to review the outcome
“Before Settlement, Kalshi may, at its sole discretion, initiate the Market Outcome Review Process pursuant to Rule 6.3(c) of the Rulebook.” · contract terms ↗
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
If the Republican Party has between 218 and 222 House seats on February 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Individuals caucusing with the Republicans will be included.
What the rules leave open
What specific time on February 1, 2027 is used to determine the seat count (though Expiration time is 10:00 AM ET, it's unclear if this is when the count is checked or just when the contract expires)
closest the rules come: “The Expiration time of the Contract shall be 10:00 AM ET.” · contract terms ↗How vacancies are counted - whether an empty seat counts toward or against the Republican total
closest the rules come: “Individuals caucusing with the Republicans will be included” · market rules ↗