Will the Republican Party win 223-227 seats in the 120th Congress? — 223-227
Open on Kalshi ↗Yes last at 6¢
The catch
Only the count on February 1, 2027 matters, not the election result.
“If the Republican Party has between 223-227 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
The Republican Party has between 223 and 227 House seats on February 1, 2027.
“If the Republican Party has between 223-227 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Decided at the event on February 1, 2027
“If the Republican Party has between 223-227 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: The composition as documented by Congress on February 1, 2027 at 10:00 AM ET
“The Expiration Value is the value of the Underlying as documented by the Source Agency on the Expiration Date at the Expiration time.” · contract terms ↗Decided by: United States Congress, congress.gov
“The Source Agency is the United States Congress” · contract terms ↗
Does not count
Revisions to the seat count made after February 1, 2027 at 10:00 AM ET do not count
“Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.” · contract terms ↗- Republicans win 223-227 seats in the November 2026 election but the count changes by February 1, 2027 due to deaths, resignations, or special electionsour reading
- Republicans have 222 or 228 seats on February 1, 2027 (just outside the range)our reading
- The count is revised after February 1, 2027 to fall within 223-227our reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
WATCHThe venue keeps a right to review the outcome
“Before Settlement, Kalshi may, at its sole discretion, initiate the Market Outcome Review Process pursuant to Rule 6.3(c) of the Rulebook.” · contract terms ↗
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
If the Republican Party has between 223 and 227 House seats on February 1, 2027, the market resolves to Yes. Individuals caucusing with the Republicans will be included.
What the rules leave open
Whether vacancies (unfilled seats) reduce the Republican count or are simply not counted
closest the rules come: “Individuals caucusing with the Republicans will be included” · market rules ↗What happens if congress.gov is unavailable or shows conflicting data on February 1, 2027
closest the rules come: “The Expiration Date of the Contract shall be February 1 following the beginning of <term>, or the next date that data is available if it is not.” · contract terms ↗