Will the Republican Party win 228-232 seats in the 120th Congress? — 228-232
Open on Kalshi ↗Yes last at 2¢
Pays out only if
The Republican Party has between 228 and 232 House seats on February 1, 2027.
“If the Republican Party has between 228-232 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Decided at the event on February 1, 2027
“If the Republican Party has between 228-232 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: Composition documented by Congress on February 1, 2027 at 10:00 AM ET
“The Expiration Value is the value of the Underlying as documented by the Source Agency on the Expiration Date at the Expiration time.” · contract terms ↗Decided by: United States Congress, congress.gov
“The Source Agency is the United States Congress” · contract terms ↗
Does not count
Revisions to House composition made after February 1, 2027 at 10:00 AM ET do not count
“Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.” · contract terms ↗- Republicans win exactly 227 or 233 seats (just outside the range)our reading
- Republicans have 228-232 seats on January 31 but composition changes by February 1our reading
- Republicans have 228-232 seats on February 2 but not on February 1our reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
WATCHThe venue keeps a right to review the outcome
“Before Settlement, Kalshi may, at its sole discretion, initiate the Market Outcome Review Process pursuant to Rule 6.3(c) of the Rulebook.” · contract terms ↗
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
The market resolves to Yes if the Republican Party has between 228 and 232 House seats on February 1, 2027. Individuals who caucus with the Republicans are included in the count.
What the rules leave open
What happens if congress.gov is unavailable or does not publish composition data on February 1, 2027 or any subsequent date
closest the rules come: “The Expiration Date of the Contract shall be February 1 following the beginning of <term>, or the next date that data is available if it is not.” · contract terms ↗Whether vacant seats are excluded from the count or how they affect the total
closest the rules come: “Individuals caucusing with the Republicans will be included” · market rules ↗