Will the Republican Party win 233-237 seats in the 120th Congress? — 233-237
Open on Kalshi ↗Yes last at 2¢
Pays out only if
The Republican Party has between 233 and 237 House seats on February 1, 2027.
“If the Republican Party has between 233-237 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Decided at the event on February 1, 2027
“If the Republican Party has between 233-237 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: The composition as documented by Congress on the Expiration Date at 10:00 AM ET
“The Expiration Value is the value of the Underlying as documented by the Source Agency on the Expiration Date at the Expiration time.” · contract terms ↗Decided by: United States Congress, congress.gov
“The Source Agency is the United States Congress” · contract terms ↗
Does not count
Revisions to the composition made after the Expiration Date will not be counted
“Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.” · contract terms ↗- Republicans win exactly 232 or 238 seats (just outside the range)our reading
- Republicans have 233-237 seats on January 31 or February 2 but not on February 1our reading
- Republicans initially have 233-237 seats but the count changes after February 1 due to recounts or challengesour reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
WATCHThe venue keeps a right to review the outcome
“Before Settlement, Kalshi may, at its sole discretion, initiate the Market Outcome Review Process pursuant to Rule 6.3(c) of the Rulebook.” · contract terms ↗
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
If the Republican Party has between 233 and 237 House seats on February 1, 2027, the market resolves to Yes. Individuals who caucus with the Republicans will be included in the count.
What the rules leave open
Whether vacant seats are counted or excluded from the total
closest the rules come: “The Underlying for this Contract is the composition (identity and partisan membership of) the U.S. House of Representatives and the Senate on February 1 following the beginning of <term>.” · contract terms ↗How congress.gov will be consulted or what specific page or data field will be used
closest the rules come: “The Expiration Value is the value of the Underlying as documented by the Source Agency on the Expiration Date at the Expiration time.” · contract terms ↗