Will Netflix's takeover of Warner Brothers succeed Before July 2027? — Netflix
The catch
Resolves Yes based on announcements alone, even if the deal later fails to close.
“Resolution is based on the announcements, not the ultimate transaction outcome—if both criteria are announced but the deal later fails, the market still resolves to Yes.” — market rules ↗
Pays out only if
Netflix must publicly announce both shareholder approval (or controlling interest) and satisfaction of all material conditions for acquiring Warner Brothers.
“If qualifying public announcements indicate Netflix's takeover of Warner Brothers has succeeded Before July 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” — market rules ↗The other party has to be Warner Brothers
“If qualifying public announcements indicate Netflix's takeover of Warner Brothers has succeeded Before July 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” — market rules ↗Has to happen before June 30, 2027
“If qualifying public announcements indicate Netflix's takeover of Warner Brothers has succeeded Before July 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” — market rules ↗Counts as done when: Both announcements publicly made
“Resolution is based solely on the occurrence of specified public announcements, not on the underlying corporate events themselves.” — contract terms ↗Decided by: target company's official investor relations website or press releases, target company's official government filings, acquirer's official investor relations website or press releases, acquirer's official government filings, Bloomberg News, Reuters, The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, CNBC, The New York Times, the Associated Press, ABC News, BBC
“The Source Agencies are, in hierarchical order, <target company>'s official investor relations website or press releases; <target company>'s official government filings; <acquirer>'s official investor relations website or press releases; <acquirer>'s official government filings; Bloomberg News, Reuters, The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, CNBC, The New York Times, the Associated Press, ABC News, and BBC.” — contract terms ↗
Does not count
Letters of intent, agreements in principle, or conditional announcements
“Letters of intent, agreements in principle, or conditional announcements do not satisfy the criteria.” — market rules ↗Board approval or recommendation without shareholder approval or controlling interest
“<target company>'s board announces agreement to be acquired by <acquirer>, but shareholders have not yet voted (if they are required to) and no conditions satisfaction announcement has been made [neither (a) nor (b) satisfied].” — contract terms ↗Shareholder approval without announcement that all material conditions have been satisfied or waived
“<target company> announces shareholders approved the merger with <acquirer> [satisfies (a)], but FTC sues to block the transaction and no conditions satisfaction announcement is ever made [only (a) satisfied, not (b)].” — contract terms ↗Announcements containing conditional language like 'subject to regulatory approval' or 'pending shareholder vote'
“Announcements containing conditional language (e.g., "subject to regulatory approval," "pending shareholder vote," "expected to close if conditions are met") do not satisfy criterion (b).” — contract terms ↗
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
WATCHThe venue keeps a right to review the outcome
“Before Settlement, Kalshi may, at its sole discretion, initiate the Market Outcome Review Process pursuant to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.” — contract terms ↗NOTEA specific counterparty is named
“If qualifying public announcements indicate Netflix's takeover of Warner Brothers has succeeded Before July 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” — market rules ↗
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only — not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
This market resolves to Yes if public announcements indicate Netflix's takeover of Warner Brothers has succeeded before July 2027. A takeover succeeds when BOTH of these are publicly announced: (a) Corporate Approval: Shareholders approved the acquisition OR Netflix acquired controlling interest (more than 50% of voting shares) (b) Conditions Satisfaction: All material conditions including regulatory approvals have been satisfied or waived Qualifying announcements include press releases, SEC filings (8-K, Schedule TO amendments), and official company announcements. Letters of intent, agreements in principle, or conditional announcements do not count. If one acquirer's takeover succeeds, all other acquirer markets immediately resolve to No. Resolution is based on the announcements themselves, not the ultimate transaction outcome. If both criteria are announced but the deal later fails, the market still resolves to Yes. The "None" option resolves to Yes only if no takeover succeeds by the deadline.
What the rules leave open
Whether 'Before July 2027' means before July 1, 2027 or before the end of June 2027
closest the rules come: “The Last Trading Date of the Contract will be the last day of <time period>.” — contract terms ↗What constitutes 'controlling interest' if not explicitly defined as >50% voting shares in some contexts
closest the rules come: “<acquirer> announces that it has acquired more than 50% of <target company>'s outstanding voting shares through open market purchases, private transactions, or any combination of methods;” — contract terms ↗