Will None's takeover of Warner Brothers succeed Before July 2027? — None before July 2027
The catch
Resolves Yes only if no takeover by any acquirer succeeds, not just unlisted ones.
“The "None" option resolves to Yes only if no takeover (not merely no takeover by the listed potential acquirers) succeeds by the deadline.” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
Public announcements indicate no takeover of Warner Brothers has succeeded before July 2027.
“The "None" option resolves to Yes only if no takeover (not merely no takeover by the listed potential acquirers) succeeds by the deadline.” · market rules ↗The other party has to be Warner Brothers
“The "None" option resolves to Yes only if no takeover (not merely no takeover by the listed potential acquirers) succeeds by the deadline.” · market rules ↗Has to happen before June 30, 2027
“If qualifying public announcements indicate None's takeover of Warner Brothers has succeeded Before July 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: Both corporate approval and conditions satisfaction publicly announced
“A takeover "succeeds" when BOTH of the following are publicly announced: (a) Corporate Approval—shareholders approved the acquisition OR the acquirer acquired controlling interest (>50% of voting shares); AND (b) Conditions Satisfaction—all material conditions including regulatory approvals have been satisfied or waived.” · market rules ↗Decided by: target company's official investor relations website or press releases, target company's official government filings, acquirer's official investor relations website or press releases, acquirer's official government filings, Bloomberg News, Reuters, The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, CNBC, The New York Times, the Associated Press, ABC News, BBC
“The Source Agencies are, in hierarchical order, <target company>'s official investor relations website or press releases; <target company>'s official government filings; <acquirer>'s official investor relations website or press releases; <acquirer>'s official government filings; Bloomberg News, Reuters, The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, CNBC, The New York Times, the Associated Press, ABC News, and BBC.” · contract terms ↗
Does not count
Letters of intent, agreements in principle, or conditional announcements
“Letters of intent, agreements in principle, or conditional announcements do not satisfy the criteria.” · market rules ↗Announcements containing conditional language (e.g., 'subject to regulatory approval', 'pending shareholder vote')
“Announcements containing conditional language (e.g., "subject to regulatory approval," "pending shareholder vote," "expected to close if conditions are met") do not satisfy criterion (b).” · contract terms ↗Partial regulatory clearance (some but not all required approvals obtained)
“An announcement that some but not all required regulatory approvals have been obtained does not satisfy criterion (b).” · contract terms ↗Rumors, leaks, or speculative reports not confirmed by official company announcements or filings
“Rumors, leaks, or speculative reports not confirmed by official company announcements or filings [not qualifying announcements].” · contract terms ↗
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
WATCHThe venue keeps a right to review the outcome
“Before Settlement, Kalshi may, at its sole discretion, initiate the Market Outcome Review Process pursuant to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.” · contract terms ↗NOTEA specific counterparty is named
“The "None" option resolves to Yes only if no takeover (not merely no takeover by the listed potential acquirers) succeeds by the deadline.” · market rules ↗
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
This market resolves to Yes if no takeover of Warner Brothers succeeds before July 2027. A takeover succeeds when both of these are publicly announced: (a) Corporate Approval: Shareholders approved the acquisition OR the acquirer acquired more than 50% of voting shares (b) Conditions Satisfaction: All material conditions including regulatory approvals have been satisfied or waived Qualifying announcements include press releases, SEC filings (8-K, Schedule TO amendments), and official company announcements. Letters of intent, agreements in principle, or conditional announcements do not count. If one acquirer's takeover succeeds, all other acquirer markets immediately resolve to No. Resolution is based on the announcements, not the ultimate transaction outcome. If both criteria are announced but the deal later fails, the market still resolves to Yes for that acquirer. The 'None' option resolves to Yes only if no takeover (not merely no takeover by the listed potential acquirers) succeeds by the deadline.
What the rules leave open
Whether 'Warner Brothers' refers to Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. or a different entity
closest the rules come: “<target company> refers to a business entity specified by the Exchange, including corporations, limited liability companies, partnerships, or other legally recognized commercial organizations that is the subject of a corporate acquisition (hostile or not) by <acquirer>. Identification may be based on official name, stock ticker, registration jurisdiction, or other distinguishing features.” · contract terms ↗What constitutes a 'qualifying public announcement' from news sources versus company sources
closest the rules come: “Press releases, SEC filings (8-K, Schedule TO amendments), and official company announcements qualify.” · market rules ↗