Kalshi· Economics· open· closes 2030-02-04

Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2029 be above $1.0 trillion? — Above $1.0 trillion

We haven't read this market's rules yet. The original text is below.

Too little has been traded here to be worth a read. Bigger markets get read first.

Original rules text

If the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2029 is strictly above $1.0 trillion dollars, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the nominal goods and services balance on a balance-of-payments basis. It will not use the goods-only deficit, the advance goods report, the December monthly deficit, or inflation-adjusted trade data. Because the agencies generally report the balance as a negative number, the market will use the absolute size of the deficit. For example, an annual trade balance of −$800.1 billion constitutes a trade deficit of $800.1 billion. Resolution will use the first annual estimate published in the release covering December of 2029. Subsequent annual revisions will not be considered.

Source ↗

Get the weekly five

The five worst-worded open markets, every Sunday.