Will Kash Patel leaves Director of the FBI in before 2027? — Kash Patel:: Director of the FBI
Pays out only if
Kash Patel must stop being Director of the FBI before 2027.
“If Kash Patel leaves as Director of the FBI before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Has to happen before December 31, 2026
“If Kash Patel leaves as Director of the FBI before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: actual departure date by vacating the role
“Kash Patel must have an actual departure date by vacating the role within the time period.” · market rules ↗Decided by: the body, agency, company, organization, or entity at which role is held, Kash Patel, official government records and registries, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Fox News, Reuters, CNN, the New York Times, Politico
“The Source Agencies are, in hierarchical order, the body, agency, company, organization, or entity at which <role> is held, <person>, official government records and registries (e.g., Congressional Record, Federal Register, official state/local government databases), The White House, The New York Times, the Associated Press, Bloomberg News, Reuters, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, NBC, ABC, CBS, CNBC, Politico, ABC News Australia, Deutsche Welle, and BBC News.” · contract terms ↗
Does not count
Temporary leaves of absence do not count as leaving
“Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position.” · market rules ↗Suspensions do not count as leaving
“Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position.” · market rules ↗Recusals do not count as leaving
“Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position.” · market rules ↗- Kash Patel is suspended from the role but not formally removedour reading
Watch out
HIGHA Yes here may pay less than a dollar
“If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange.” · market rules ↗- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
WATCHThe venue keeps a right to review the outcome
“Before Settlement, Kalshi may, at its sole discretion, initiate the Market Outcome Review Process pursuant to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.” · contract terms ↗
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
If Kash Patel stops being Director of the FBI before 2027, the market resolves to Yes. Kash Patel must have an actual departure date by leaving the role within the time period. If the person leaves the role because they die while holding it, all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as decided by the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not count as leaving unless the person formally and permanently stops holding the position. If the person leaves the role and then takes the role again, the contract may settle based on the first time they left. For "leave," stopping holding the role counts, including resignation, retirement, removal, term expiration without renewal, recall, or other ways the person no longer has the role—this includes both voluntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.
What the rules leave open
Whether Kash Patel must first be confirmed as Director of the FBI for the market to resolve Yes upon his departure
closest the rules come: “If Kash Patel leaves as Director of the FBI before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗What happens if Kash Patel is never appointed or confirmed as Director of the FBI
closest the rules come: “If Kash Patel leaves as Director of the FBI before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗