Will Marco Rubio leaves Secretary of State in before 2027? — :: Secretary of State
Open on Kalshi ↗Yes last at 12¢
The catch
The market resolves Yes even if Rubio's term naturally expires at the end of 2026.
“For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
Marco Rubio must cease to hold the position of Secretary of State before 2027.
“If Marco Rubio leaves as Secretary of State before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Has to happen before December 31, 2026
“If Marco Rubio leaves as Secretary of State before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: actual departure date by vacating the role
“Marco Rubio must have an actual departure date by vacating the role within the time period.” · market rules ↗Decided by: the body, agency, company, organization, or entity at which role is held, Marco Rubio, official government records and registries, The New York Times, the Associated Press, Bloomberg News, Reuters, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, CNN, Fox News, Politico
“The Source Agencies are, in hierarchical order, the body, agency, company, organization, or entity at which <role> is held, <person>, official government records and registries (e.g., Congressional Record, Federal Register, official state/local government databases), The White House, The New York Times, the Associated Press, Bloomberg News, Reuters, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, NBC, ABC, CBS, CNBC, Politico, ABC News Australia, Deutsche Welle, and BBC News.” · contract terms ↗
Does not count
Temporary leaves of absence do not count as leaving
“Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position.” · market rules ↗Suspensions do not count as leaving
“Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position.” · market rules ↗Recusals do not count as leaving
“Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position.” · market rules ↗- Marco Rubio announces he will leave Secretary of State in early 2027 but the announcement is made in 2026our reading
Watch out
HIGHA Yes here may pay less than a dollar
“If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange.” · market rules ↗- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
WATCHThe venue keeps a right to review the outcome
“Before Settlement, Kalshi may, at its sole discretion, initiate the Market Outcome Review Process pursuant to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.” · contract terms ↗
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
If Marco Rubio stops being Secretary of State before 2027, the market resolves Yes. Marco Rubio must actually leave the role within the time period. If he dies while in the role, all contracts may resolve to the last fair price at Kalshi's discretion. Temporary leaves, suspensions, or recusals don't count as leaving unless he formally and permanently stops holding the position. If he leaves and then comes back to the role, the contract may settle based on the first time he left. Leaving means no longer holding the role for any reason, including resignation, retirement, removal, term expiration without renewal, recall, or any other way he stops occupying the role—this includes both voluntary early departure and natural expiration of a term.
What the rules leave open
Whether re-occupying the role after vacating it would trigger a second resolution or only the first vacation counts
closest the rules come: “If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role.” · market rules ↗