Will Pete Hegseth leaves Secretary of Defense in before 2027? — :: Secretary of Defense
Open on Kalshi ↗Yes last at 28¢
The catch
Natural expiration of term without renewal counts as leaving, not just early departure.
“For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
Pete Hegseth must cease to hold the position of Secretary of Defense before 2027.
“If Pete Hegseth leaves as Secretary of Defense before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Has to happen before December 31, 2026
“If Pete Hegseth leaves as Secretary of Defense before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: actual departure date by vacating the role
“Pete Hegseth must have an actual departure date by vacating the role within the time period.” · market rules ↗Decided by: the body, agency, company, organization, or entity at which role is held, Pete Hegseth, official government records and registries, The White House, The New York Times, the Associated Press, Bloomberg News, Reuters, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, NBC, ABC, CBS, CNBC, Politico, ABC News Australia, Deutsche Welle, BBC News
“The Source Agencies are, in hierarchical order, the body, agency, company, organization, or entity at which <role> is held, <person>, official government records and registries (e.g., Congressional Record, Federal Register, official state/local government databases), The White House, The New York Times, the Associated Press, Bloomberg News, Reuters, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, NBC, ABC, CBS, CNBC, Politico, ABC News Australia, Deutsche Welle, and BBC News.” · contract terms ↗
Does not count
Temporary leaves of absence do not count as leaving
“Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position.” · market rules ↗Suspensions do not count as leaving
“Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position.” · market rules ↗Recusals do not count as leaving
“Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position.” · market rules ↗- Pete Hegseth announces resignation in 2026 but with an effective date in 2027our reading
Watch out
HIGHA Yes here may pay less than a dollar
“If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange.” · market rules ↗- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
WATCHThe venue keeps a right to review the outcome
“Before Settlement, Kalshi may, at its sole discretion, initiate the Market Outcome Review Process pursuant to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.” · contract terms ↗
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
The market resolves to Yes if Pete Hegseth leaves as Secretary of Defense before 2027. Pete Hegseth must have an actual departure date by vacating the role within the time period. If Pete Hegseth dies while holding the role, all contracts may resolve to the last fair price as determined by the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not count as leaving unless Pete Hegseth formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If Pete Hegseth vacates the role and then re-occupies it, the contract may settle on the initial vacation. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary early departure and the natural expiration of a term.
What the rules leave open
- Whether Pete Hegseth must first be confirmed and serve as Secretary of Defense, or if the market resolves No if he never takes office
What happens if Pete Hegseth vacates the role and then re-occupies it - whether the market settles on the initial vacation even if re-occupation occurs before 2027
closest the rules come: “If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role.” · market rules ↗