Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leaves HHS Secretary in before 2027? — :: HHS Secretary
Open on Kalshi ↗Yes last at 19¢
The catch
The title says "before 2027" but natural term expiration doesn't count as leaving.
“For "leave": Cessation of holding <role> qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies <role>. This includes both voluntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.” · contract terms ↗
Pays out only if
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. must stop being HHS Secretary before 2027.
“If Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leaves as HHS Secretary before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Has to happen before December 31, 2026
“If Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leaves as HHS Secretary before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: actual departure date by vacating the role
“Robert F. Kennedy Jr. must have an actual departure date by vacating the role within the time period.” · market rules ↗Decided by: the body, agency, company, organization, or entity at which role is held, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., official government records and registries, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Fox News, Reuters, CNN, the New York Times, Politico
“The Source Agencies are, in hierarchical order, the body, agency, company, organization, or entity at which <role> is held, <person>, official government records and registries (e.g., Congressional Record, Federal Register, official state/local government databases), The White House, The New York Times, the Associated Press, Bloomberg News, Reuters, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, NBC, ABC, CBS, CNBC, Politico, ABC News Australia, Deutsche Welle, and BBC News.” · contract terms ↗
Does not count
Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not count as leaving
“Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position.” · market rules ↗Choosing not to seek re-election or allowing a term to expire without renewal does not count for resign from or retire from
“For "resign from" or "retire from": Choosing not to seek re-election, declining to run for another term, or allowing a term to expire without renewal. A resignation or retirement requires an affirmative act to terminate current occupancy of <role> prior to its scheduled conclusion.” · contract terms ↗Completing a full term and departing on the natural expiration date does not count for resign from or retire from
“For "resign from" or "retire from": Completing a full term and departing on the natural expiration date (e.g., January 3 for U.S. Representatives and Senators when term ends and successor takes office).” · contract terms ↗- RFK Jr. announces he will leave HHS Secretary in early 2027 but the actual departure date is January 2027our reading
Watch out
HIGHA Yes here may pay less than a dollar
“If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange.” · market rules ↗- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
WATCHThe venue keeps a right to review the outcome
“Before Settlement, Kalshi may, at its sole discretion, initiate the Market Outcome Review Process pursuant to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.” · contract terms ↗
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
If Robert F. Kennedy Jr. stops being HHS Secretary before 2027, the market resolves to Yes. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. must have an actual departure date by vacating the role within the time period. If he dies while holding the role, all contracts may resolve to the last fair price as decided by the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not count as leaving unless he formally and permanently stops holding the position. If he vacates the role and then takes it again, the contract may settle on the first time he left. For "leave," stopping holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, term expiration without renewal, recall, or other ways he no longer holds the role—this includes both voluntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.
What the rules leave open
Whether HHS Secretary has a fixed term with a natural expiration date, or whether any departure before 2027 counts as leaving
closest the rules come: “For "leave": Cessation of holding <role> qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies <role>. This includes both voluntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.” · contract terms ↗Whether RFK Jr. must be confirmed and actually serving as HHS Secretary for this market to resolve Yes, or if leaving a nomination/appointment process counts
closest the rules come: “If Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leaves as HHS Secretary before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗