Will integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during 2026 get above 91,500 MW? — Above 91,500 MW
Open on Kalshi ↗Yes last at 4¢
The catch
Only full-hour load readings count; instantaneous load readings do not count.
“Resolution will use ERCOT's integrated system load for a full hour. Instantaneous load readings will not be considered.” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
ERCOT's integrated system load for a full hour during 2026 must exceed 91,500 MW.
“If ERCOT reports that the integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during calendar year 2026 is above 91,500 MW, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Has to happen during calendar year 2026
“If ERCOT reports that the integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during calendar year 2026 is above 91,500 MW, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: ERCOT publishes the official settled peak-demand value
“Resolution will use the applicable official settled peak-demand value published by ERCOT.” · market rules ↗Decided by: ERCOT
“Resolution will use the applicable official settled peak-demand value published by ERCOT.” · market rules ↗
Does not count
Instantaneous load readings
“Instantaneous load readings will not be considered.” · market rules ↗Preliminary peak-demand figures that change during settlement
“ERCOT's preliminary peak-demand figures may change during the settlement process. Resolution will use the applicable official settled peak-demand value published by ERCOT.” · market rules ↗- Instantaneous load reading exceeds 91,500 MW but no full-hour reading doesour reading
- Preliminary peak-demand figure exceeds 91,500 MW but the official settled value does notour reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
WATCHThe venue keeps a right to review the outcome
“Before Settlement, Kalshi may, at its sole discretion, initiate the Market Outcome Review Process pursuant to Rule 6.3(d) of the Rulebook.” · contract terms ↗
Read on 2026-09-11. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
If ERCOT reports that the integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during calendar year 2026 is above 91,500 MW, the market resolves to Yes. Resolution will use ERCOT's integrated system load for a full hour. Instantaneous load readings will not be considered. ERCOT's preliminary peak-demand figures may change during the settlement process. Resolution will use the applicable official settled peak-demand value published by ERCOT.
What the rules leave open
What specific ERCOT report or data source will be used to determine the official settled peak-demand value
closest the rules come: “Resolution will use the applicable official settled peak-demand value published by ERCOT.” · market rules ↗How long after 2026 ends will ERCOT publish the official settled peak-demand value
closest the rules come: “The latest Expiration Date of the Contract shall be three months after the scheduled <econ stat> release date for <period>.” · contract terms ↗