Kalshi· Climate and Weather· open· closes 2028-01-01

Will the average daily minimum temperature in Texas (DFW & IAH) fall below 20°F for at least 2 days within a 4-day span before Jan 1, 2028? — Before 2028

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Original rules text

If any span of 4 consecutive calendar days after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028 contains at least 2 days where the Station Average at Dallas Fort Worth International Airport (DFW) and George Bush Intercontinental Airport, Houston (IAH) is below 20°F, then the market resolves to Yes. A "Qualifying Day" is a calendar day after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028 for which the applicable Station Test is met. The Station Test is whether the Station Average for the calendar day is below 20. A calendar day is after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028 if the calendar date of that day, as used in the Source Agency's climatological records for the Reference Stations, falls after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028. The Qualifying Days within that span need not be consecutive, and Qualifying Days occurring outside that span do not affect the determination. The Station Average is calculated for any calendar day as the arithmetic mean of the Daily Minimum Temperatures for all Reference Stations for that calendar day, computed in degrees Fahrenheit and truncated to one decimal place. The Daily Minimum Temperature is the minimum temperature, in degrees Fahrenheit (unless otherwise specified), for a Reference Station for a calendar day, as documented by the Source Agency in its daily or monthly climatological records for that station, using the calendar-day boundaries applied by the Source Agency in those records. If the Source Agency corrects a documented value prior to Expiration, the corrected value shall be used.

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