Kalshi· Economics· open· closes 2031-01-10

Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2030 be above 4.5%? — Above 4.5%

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Original rules text

If the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2030 is above 4.5%, then the market resolves to Yes. “Year-end” refers exclusively to the December reference month, regardless of when the corresponding data are released. It does not refer to the annual average, the fourth-quarter average, the highest unemployment rate reported during the year, or the latest unemployment rate available as of December 31. The Expiration Value is the first non-preliminary seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for December 2030. Values will be compared as published without rounding. Later revisions will not affect the outcome.

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