How high will unemployment get before 2027? — Above 5%
Open on Kalshi ↗Yes last at 2¢
The catch
Only the initial published rate counts; later revisions are ignored.
“Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.” · contract terms ↗
Pays out only if
Any monthly U.S. unemployment rate in 2026 goes above 5%.
“If any U.S. seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for a month in 2026 is above 5%, the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Has to happen during 2026
“If any U.S. seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for a month in 2026 is above 5%, the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: BLS publishes the monthly unemployment rate
“The Monthly Employment Situation Report is published by the BLS every month.” · contract terms ↗Decided by: Bureau of Labor Statistics
“The Source Agency is the Bureau of Labor Statistics.” · contract terms ↗
Does not count
- Unemployment rate is revised above 5% after initial publicationour reading
- Unemployment rate reaches exactly 5.0% (not above)our reading
- Non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate goes above 5%our reading
- U-6 or other unemployment measure goes above 5%our reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
WATCHThe venue keeps a right to review the outcome
“Before Settlement, Kalshi may, at its sole discretion, initiate the Market Outcome Review Process pursuant to Rule 6.3(c) of the Rulebook.” · contract terms ↗
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
If any U.S. seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for a month in 2026 is above 5%, the market resolves to Yes.