Kalshi· Elections· open· closes 2030-01-01

Will Reform UK minority form the next government in the United Kingdom? — Reform UK minority

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Original rules text

If Reform UK, with Reform UK not holding a majority of seats in the House of Commons and with no other party in a confidence and supply arrangement with the ruling government exclusively make up the next elected ruling government of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. A party is considered part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position in the new government. This evaluation occurs at the first official, stable formation of the government once the legislative process is complete and the head of state appoints ministers under normal non-caretaker circumstances. Confidence and supply arrangements where a party supports the government without holding cabinet positions may be included if explicitly specified in the parties description. Caretaker or interim governments appointed temporarily before formal government formation do not count for determining party status. A sole 'minority' government designation (e.g. 'Party X minority') means the relevant party is the ruling government but does not have a confidence and supply agreement with any party or a majority of seats in the parliament (or equivalent legislature). If a parties description specifies support from one or more named parties, that support is exclusive to the named parties.

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