Will Waymo operate ride-hailing in Denver, CO before Jan 1, 2027? — Denver, CO
The catch
Safety drivers must not be present; fully autonomous rides must be offered at least some of the time.
“Services operating exclusively with safety drivers present do not satisfy the Payout Criterion; the service must offer fully autonomous rides (without a human safety driver) at least some of the time.” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
Waymo must operate commercial autonomous ride-hailing services available to the general public within Denver, CO.
“If Waymo is operating commercial autonomous vehicle ride-hailing services available to the general public within Denver, CO before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Has to happen before December 31, 2026
“If Waymo is operating commercial autonomous vehicle ride-hailing services available to the general public within Denver, CO before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: Service is operating and available to the general public
“"Operating commercial services" means that members of the general public can download the Waymo app (or access Waymo through a partner app), request a ride with pickup and dropoff locations within Denver, CO, and receive autonomous vehicle service for a fee.” · market rules ↗Decided by: Waymo, https://waymo.com/
“The Source Agency is Waymo” · contract terms ↗
Does not count
Employee shuttles or closed testing programs
“Waymo only operates employee shuttles or closed testing in Denver, CO” · market rules ↗Office or maintenance facility only
“Waymo only has an office or maintenance facility in Denver, CO” · market rules ↗All vehicles have safety drivers
“All Waymo vehicles in Denver, CO have safety drivers” · market rules ↗Testing without offering paid public rides
“Waymo is testing but not offering paid public rides” · market rules ↗
Watch out
WATCHOne publication decides the outcome
“The Source Agency is Waymo” · contract terms ↗- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
WATCHThe venue keeps a right to review the outcome
“Before Settlement, Kalshi may, at its sole discretion, initiate the Market Outcome Review Process pursuant to Rule 6.3(d) of the Rulebook.” · contract terms ↗
Read on 2026-09-11. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
This market resolves to Yes if Waymo is operating commercial autonomous vehicle ride-hailing services available to the general public within Denver, CO before January 1, 2027. Operating commercial services means members of the general public can download the Waymo app (or access Waymo through a partner app), request a ride with pickup and dropoff locations within Denver, CO, and receive autonomous vehicle service for a fee. The service must be available to the general public without requiring special invitation codes, waitlist approval, or participation in testing programs, though geographic coverage within Denver, CO may be limited to certain areas. Services operating exclusively with safety drivers present do not count; the service must offer fully autonomous rides (without a human safety driver) at least some of the time. Examples that would resolve to Yes: - Waymo launches public commercial service in any part of Denver, CO - Waymo expands from adjacent areas into Denver, CO limits - Waymo operates 24/7 service or limited hours service within Denver, CO - Waymo offers service through the Uber app to all users in Denver, CO - Service is geofenced to only certain neighborhoods but is public Examples that would resolve to No: - Waymo only operates employee shuttles or closed testing in Denver, CO - Waymo only has an office or maintenance facility in Denver, CO - All Waymo vehicles in Denver, CO have safety drivers - Waymo is testing but not offering paid public rides - Service requires being on a waitlist or having a special code - Waymo announces plans to launch but hasn't started service by Jan 1, 2027
What the rules leave open
What percentage of rides must be fully autonomous (without safety drivers) to satisfy 'at least some of the time'
closest the rules come: “Services operating exclusively with safety drivers present do not satisfy the Payout Criterion; the service must offer fully autonomous rides (without a human safety driver) at least some of the time.” · market rules ↗How much geographic coverage within Denver is required - whether a single neighborhood or multiple areas are needed
closest the rules come: “Being in parts of a city available to the public is sufficient to be included in the Underlying.” · contract terms ↗