Sharpbook
Polymarket· finance· open· settles 2026-09-30

Will Apple (AAPL) close above $290 end of September?

Open on Polymarket ↗Yes last at 91¢

The catch

  • If the closing price equals exactly $290, the market resolves to No.
    “If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No".” · market rules ↗

Pays out only if

  • Apple stock closes above $290 on the final trading day of September 2026.
    “This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for Apple (AAPL) on the final trading day of September 2026 is higher than the listed price.” · market rules ↗
  • Has to happen during September 2026
    “This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for Apple (AAPL) on the final trading day of September 2026 is higher than the listed price.” · market rules ↗
  • Counts as done when: Pyth Close value of the 1-minute candle at the final minute of regular trading
    “For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange.” · market rules ↗
  • Decided by: Pyth, primary exchange
    “The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Apple (AAPL) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.AAPL%2FUSD.” · market rules ↗

Does not count

  • A closing price exactly equal to $290 does not count as above $290
    “If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No".” · market rules ↗
  • Apple closes at exactly $290.00our reading
  • Apple closes above $290 on any day in September other than the final trading dayour reading
  • Apple's intraday high exceeds $290 on the final trading day but closes below itour reading

Watch out

  • HIGHA Yes here may pay less than a dollar
    “If Apple (AAPL) does not trade at all during the regular session of the final trading day of the month, the market will resolve 50-50.” · market rules ↗
  • WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
  • NOTEAn outside data source decides, with a named backup
    “The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Apple (AAPL) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.AAPL%2FUSD.” · market rules ↗

Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.

The rules, in plain English

This market resolves to Yes if Apple's closing price on the last trading day of September 2026 is higher than $290. Otherwise it resolves to No. If the price equals exactly $290, it resolves to No. Closing prices are used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Apple doesn't trade at all during the regular session on the final trading day of the month, the market resolves 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price is the Pyth Close value of the 1-minute candle for the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the session is shortened (like for a market holiday), the Pyth Close value of the 1-minute candle for the final minute of that shortened session is used. If there's no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle at the end of regular trading hours, the market uses the last valid Pyth price during regular trading hours as the closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical problem, the official closing price published by the primary exchange will be used. If there's a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action during the time frame, the market resolves based on split-adjusted prices as shown on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution is based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after adjustments have been applied. The resolution source is Pyth, specifically the Close values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Apple available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.AAPL%2FUSD.

What the rules leave open

  • Whether the target price of $290 will be adjusted if a stock split occurs before September 2026
    closest the rules come: “In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits.” · market rules ↗