Sharpbook
Polymarket· finance· open· settles 2026-09-11

Will Apple (AAPL) close above $325 on September 11?

Open on Polymarket ↗Yes last at 53¢

The catch

  • If the closing price equals exactly $325, the market resolves to No.
    “If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No".” · market rules ↗

Pays out only if

  • Apple stock closes above $325 on September 11, 2026.
    “This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for Apple (AAPL) on September 11, 2026 is higher than the listed price.” · market rules ↗
  • Decided at the event on September 11, 2026
    “This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for Apple (AAPL) on September 11, 2026 is higher than the listed price.” · market rules ↗
  • Counts as done when: Pyth Close value of the 1-minute candle at end of regular trading hours
    “For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange.” · market rules ↗
  • Decided by: Pyth, primary exchange
    “The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.AAPL%2FUSD.” · market rules ↗

Does not count

  • Closing price exactly equal to $325
    “If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No".” · market rules ↗
  • Apple closes at exactly $325.00our reading
  • Apple trades above $325 intraday but closes at or below $325our reading
  • Apple closes above $325 on a different date in September 2026our reading

Watch out

  • HIGHA Yes here may pay less than a dollar
    “If Apple (AAPL) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50.” · market rules ↗
  • WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
  • NOTEAn outside data source decides, with a named backup
    “The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.AAPL%2FUSD.” · market rules ↗

Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.

The rules, in plain English

This market resolves to Yes if Apple's closing price on September 11, 2026 is higher than $325. Otherwise it resolves to No. If the closing price equals exactly $325, the market resolves to No. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Apple does not trade at all during the regular session, the market resolves 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price is the Pyth Close value of the 1-minute candle for the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If there is no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle at the end of regular trading hours, the market will use the last valid Pyth price during regular trading hours as the closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price from the primary exchange will be used. If September 11, 2026 is not a trading day according to Pyth's trading-hours schedule, the market resolves 50-50. If a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action occurs during the time frame, the market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as shown on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on historical price data as shown on Pyth after adjustments have been applied. The resolution source is Pyth, specifically the Close values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.AAPL%2FUSD.

What the rules leave open

  • Whether the target price of $325 will be adjusted if a stock split occurs before September 11, 2026
    closest the rules come: “In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits.” · market rules ↗