Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET
Open on Polymarket ↗Yes last at 51¢
The catch
Resolves on Chainlink's time-weighted average price, not the spot price at 6:15AM.
“This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range.” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
Bitcoin's time-weighted average price during the 15-minute window equals or exceeds the price at 6:00AM ET.
“This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range.” · market rules ↗Has to happen during September 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET
“This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: TWAP calculated over the 15-minute window
“This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range.” · market rules ↗Decided by: Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream
“The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams.” · market rules ↗
Does not count
Spot market prices from sources other than Chainlink TWAP
“Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.” · market rules ↗- Bitcoin spot price is higher at 6:15AM than at 6:00AM, but the TWAP is lowerour reading
- Bitcoin price increases on Coinbase or other exchanges but Chainlink TWAP shows downour reading
- Bitcoin price at exactly 6:15AM is higher but the time-weighted average over the period is notour reading
Watch out
HIGHAn outside website decides, with no backup named
“The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams.” · market rules ↗- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
This market resolves to "Up" if Bitcoin's time-weighted average price (TWAP) from Chainlink during the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the start of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down". The resolution source is Chainlink's BTC/USD TWAP data stream at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams. This market is about the Chainlink TWAP price, not spot markets or other sources.
What the rules leave open
- Whether the year is 2024 or another year (title only says September 11)
What happens if the Chainlink data stream is unavailable or fails to report
closest the rules come: “The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams.” · market rules ↗