Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET
Open on Polymarket ↗Yes last at 51¢
The catch
Resolves on Chainlink's TWAP data stream, not spot price or any exchange.
“Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
Bitcoin's time-weighted average price during the specified window equals or exceeds the price at the start.
“This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range.” · market rules ↗Has to happen during September 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET
“This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: TWAP calculated for the specified time range
“This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range.” · market rules ↗Decided by: Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream
“The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams.” · market rules ↗
Does not count
Spot prices from exchanges or sources other than Chainlink TWAP
“Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.” · market rules ↗- Bitcoin spot price on Coinbase or Binance increases during the window but Chainlink TWAP shows downour reading
- Bitcoin price increases at the end of the window but TWAP for the entire period is lower than starting priceour reading
- Bitcoin price according to other TWAP calculations increases but Chainlink's specific data stream shows downour reading
Watch out
HIGHAn outside website decides, with no backup named
“The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams.” · market rules ↗- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
This market resolves to "Up" if Bitcoin's time-weighted average price from Chainlink during September 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET is greater than or equal to the price at 10:15AM. Otherwise it resolves to "Down". The resolution source is Chainlink's BTC/USD TWAP data stream at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams. This market uses the Chainlink TWAP data stream, not spot markets or other sources.
What the rules leave open
What happens if the Chainlink data stream is unavailable or shows no data for the specified time range
closest the rules come: “The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams.” · market rules ↗Whether the comparison uses the exact 10:15AM ET price or a TWAP starting at that time
closest the rules come: “This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range.” · market rules ↗