Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET
Open on Polymarket ↗Yes last at 51¢
The catch
Resolves on Chainlink's TWAP data stream, not spot price or exchange prices.
“Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
Bitcoin's time-weighted average price during the specified 15-minute window must be at or above the starting price.
“This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range.” · market rules ↗Has to happen during September 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET
“This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: TWAP calculated over the specified time range
“This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range.” · market rules ↗Decided by: Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream
“The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams.” · market rules ↗
Does not count
Spot market prices from exchanges or other sources
“Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.” · market rules ↗- Bitcoin spot price on Coinbase or Binance rises during the window but Chainlink TWAP does notour reading
- Bitcoin price rises briefly but the time-weighted average over the full 15 minutes is lower than the startour reading
- Bitcoin price at 11:30 AM is higher than at 11:15 AM but the TWAP across the period is notour reading
Watch out
HIGHAn outside website decides, with no backup named
“The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams.” · market rules ↗- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
This market resolves to "Up" if Bitcoin's time-weighted average price from Chainlink during the 15-minute window from 11:15 AM to 11:30 AM ET on September 11 is greater than or equal to the price at 11:15 AM. Otherwise it resolves to "Down". The resolution source is Chainlink's BTC/USD TWAP data stream at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams. This market uses the Chainlink TWAP data stream, not spot market prices from exchanges or other sources.
What the rules leave open
- Whether the year is 2024 or another year (title only says September 11)
What happens if the Chainlink data stream is unavailable or fails to report during the specified window
closest the rules come: “The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams.” · market rules ↗Whether the starting price is measured at exactly 11:15:00 AM or averaged over some initial period
closest the rules come: “This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range.” · market rules ↗