Ethereum Up or Down - September 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET
Open on Polymarket ↗Yes last at 50¢
The catch
Resolves on Chainlink's time-weighted average price, not the spot price at 11:30AM.
“This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Ethereum, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range.” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
The time-weighted average Ethereum price during the 15-minute window must be at or above the starting price.
“This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Ethereum, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range.” · market rules ↗Has to happen during September 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET
“This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Ethereum, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: TWAP calculation for the specified time range
“This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Ethereum, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range.” · market rules ↗Decided by: Chainlink ETH/USD TWAP data stream
“The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the ETH/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd-twap-60s-streams.” · market rules ↗
Does not count
Spot market prices from sources other than Chainlink TWAP
“Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair ETH/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.” · market rules ↗- Ethereum spot price rises during the window but TWAP stays below starting priceour reading
- Ethereum price on other exchanges or data sources shows an increase but Chainlink TWAP does notour reading
- Price at 11:30AM is higher than at 11:15AM but the time-weighted average is lowerour reading
Watch out
HIGHAn outside website decides, with no backup named
“The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the ETH/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd-twap-60s-streams.” · market rules ↗- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
This market resolves to "Up" if Ethereum's time-weighted average price from Chainlink during the time range in the title is at or above the price at the start of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down". The resolution source is Chainlink's ETH/USD TWAP data stream at https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd-twap-60s-streams. This market uses the TWAP Chainlink data stream for ETH/USD, not other sources or spot markets.
What the rules leave open
- Whether the year is 2024 or another year is not specified in the title or rules
How the starting price is determined (first data point, price at exactly 11:15AM, or another method)
closest the rules come: “This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Ethereum, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range.” · market rules ↗