GitHub.com critical incident by September 15, 2026?
The catch
Incidents affecting only Copilot or Copilot AI Model Providers do not count.
“An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as "critical," unless its affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers.” — market rules ↗
Pays out only if
GitHub.com experiences an incident classified as critical on its official status page.
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if GitHub.com experiences an incident with an impact classified as "critical" between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.” — market rules ↗Has to happen before September 16, 2026
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if GitHub.com experiences an incident with an impact classified as "critical" between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.” — market rules ↗Counts as done when: when incident is marked Resolved on GitHub Status Page
“An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as "critical," unless its affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers.” — market rules ↗Decided by: GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com), GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api)
“The primary resolution source for this market will be official GitHub system-status information published at https://www.githubstatus.com/, including the official GitHub Status API (https://www.githubstatus.com/api); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.” — market rules ↗
Does not count
Incidents affecting only Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers
“Incidents whose affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers will not qualify.” — market rules ↗Scheduled maintenance
“Scheduled maintenance will not qualify.” — market rules ↗Revisions published after an incident is marked Resolved
“Revisions published after an incident is marked "Resolved" will not be considered.” — market rules ↗- A major (not critical) incident affecting core GitHub servicesour reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only — not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
This market pays Yes if GitHub.com has an incident classified as "critical" between when the market was created and 11:59 PM ET on September 15, 2026. Otherwise it pays No. An incident counts if the official GitHub Status Page or API classifies its impact as "critical," unless the only affected components when it's marked "Resolved" are Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers. Incidents with no affected components listed count. GitHub uses four impact levels: None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only Critical counts. Component status labels like "Degraded Performance" or "Major Outage" don't matter unless there's a critical incident. Changes published after an incident is marked "Resolved" don't count. If an incident starts before 11:59 PM ET on September 15, 2026 but isn't resolved yet, the market stays open and resolves when either: (i) the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) seven days after September 15, 2026, whichever comes first. At that point it resolves based on the official information available. Incidents affecting only Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers don't count. Scheduled maintenance doesn't count. The main source is official GitHub status information at githubstatus.com and its API, but a consensus of credible reporting can also be used.
What the rules leave open
Whether an incident with no affected components listed qualifies if it is classified as critical
What happens if GitHub changes its incident classification system (e.g., removes the Critical category or adds new categories)
closest the rules come: “GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only Critical will qualify.” — market rules ↗