GitHub.com critical incident by September 30, 2026?
The catch
Incidents affecting only Copilot or Copilot AI Model Providers do not count.
“An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as "critical," unless its affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers.” — market rules ↗
Pays out only if
GitHub.com experiences an incident classified as critical on its official status page.
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if GitHub.com experiences an incident with an impact classified as "critical" between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.” — market rules ↗Has to happen before October 1, 2026
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if GitHub.com experiences an incident with an impact classified as "critical" between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.” — market rules ↗Counts as done when: incident marked as Resolved on GitHub Status Page
“An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as "critical," unless its affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers.” — market rules ↗Decided by: GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com), GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api)
“The primary resolution source for this market will be official GitHub system-status information published at https://www.githubstatus.com/, including the official GitHub Status API (https://www.githubstatus.com/api); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.” — market rules ↗
Does not count
Incidents affecting only Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers
“Incidents whose affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers will not qualify.” — market rules ↗Scheduled maintenance
“Scheduled maintenance will not qualify.” — market rules ↗Revisions published after an incident is marked Resolved
“Revisions published after an incident is marked "Resolved" will not be considered.” — market rules ↗- A critical incident affecting only Copilot servicesour reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only — not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
This market resolves to Yes if GitHub.com has an incident classified as critical between when the market was created and September 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise it resolves to No. An incident qualifies if the official GitHub Status Page or API classifies its impact as critical, unless the affected components when the incident is marked Resolved are only Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers. Incidents with no affected components listed will qualify. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only Critical qualifies. Component status labels like "Degraded Performance," "Partial Outage," or "Major Outage" don't matter unless there's a qualifying critical incident. Revisions published after an incident is marked Resolved won't be considered. If an incident that started before 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026 is still unresolved at that time, the market stays open and resolves at whichever comes first: (i) when the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) after September 30, 2026, when the market will resolve based on the official information available then. Incidents whose affected components, once marked Resolved, are only Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers don't qualify. Scheduled maintenance doesn't qualify. The primary resolution source is official GitHub system-status information at https://www.githubstatus.com/, including the official GitHub Status API (https://www.githubstatus.com/api); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
What the rules leave open
What happens if an incident is classified as critical but never marked as Resolved by the end of the seven-day extension period?
closest the rules come: “If an incident that began before 11:59 PM ET on the listed date remains unresolved at that time, this market will remain open and resolve at the earlier of: (i) when the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) after the listed date, at which point the market will resolve based on the official information available at that time.” — market rules ↗Whether an incident with no affected components listed must still be classified as critical to qualify, or if having no components automatically makes it qualify regardless of classification.