Israel military action against Lebanon on September 18?

The rules, in plain English

This market resolves to Yes if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Lebanon on September 18, Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise it resolves to No. A qualifying military action is an air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike initiated by Israel that directly impacts Lebanon. Air strikes include bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. Surface-to-surface missile strikes include one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles like cruise or ballistic missiles. The following do not count as qualifying military actions: munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; surface-to-air missile strikes; small-arms fire; ground incursions; cyber operations; naval gunfire and artillery fire; howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (like MLRS systems); minor surface-to-surface strikes including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Munitions intercepted or destroyed before impact do not count. Debris, fragments, or wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Lebanon do not count as a military action regardless of damage. Lebanon refers to the terrestrial territory of Lebanon, including its internal waters. Lebanon's maritime territory and airspace are not included. Where borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under de facto control of Lebanon as of market creation qualifies. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be determined based on consensus of information from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict on occurrence, attribution, or timing, this market will remain open until the earlier of: (i) confirmation based on consensus from resolution sources or (ii) 3 full calendar days (IDT) from the date of first credibly reported evidence. If this period would extend past the end date, the market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources are official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Lebanon and a consensus of credible reporting.

What the rules leave open

• What distinguishes 'minor' surface-to-surface strikes from qualifying ones; no threshold or criteria providedsource

  closest the rules come: “Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;” · market rules ↗
• Whether air-launched drones that are not one-way attack drones qualify as air strikessource

  closest the rules come: “An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones.” · market rules ↗