Israel military action against Lebanon on September 25?

The rules, in plain English

This market resolves to Yes if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Lebanon on September 25 (Israel Daylight Time). Otherwise it resolves to No. A qualifying military action means an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, started by Israel, that directly hits Lebanon. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles like cruise or ballistic missiles. The following do NOT count as qualifying military actions: - Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact - Surface-to-air missile strikes - Small-arms fire - Ground incursions - Cyber operations - Naval gunfire and artillery fire - Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (like MLRS systems) - Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes - Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not count as a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Lebanon do not count as a military action regardless of any damage. Lebanon means the land territory of Lebanon, including its internal waters. Lebanon's maritime territory and airspace are not included. Where borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Lebanon as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be determined primarily based on a consensus of information from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict about the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: (i) confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing based on a consensus of information from the resolution sources or (ii) 3 full calendar days (IDT) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be decided based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market are official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Lebanon and a consensus of credible reporting.

What the rules leave open

• What distinguishes 'minor' surface-to-surface strikes from qualifying ones (e.g., what range or munition size threshold separates them)source

  closest the rules come: “Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;” — market rules ↗
• Whether the timing is based on when the strike is launched or when it impacts Lebanonsource

  closest the rules come: “A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Lebanon.” — market rules ↗