Sharpbook
Polymarket· finance· open· settles 2026-09-30

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 end of September?

Open on Polymarket ↗Yes last at 89¢

The catch

  • The market resolves No if NVDA closes exactly at $190.
    “If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No".” · market rules ↗

Pays out only if

  • NVIDIA stock must close above $190 on the final trading day of September 2026.
    “This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on the final trading day of September 2026 is higher than the listed price.” · market rules ↗
  • Has to happen during September 2026
    “This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on the final trading day of September 2026 is higher than the listed price.” · market rules ↗
  • Counts as done when: Pyth Close value of the 1-minute candle at end of regular trading hours
    “For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange.” · market rules ↗
  • Decided by: Pyth, primary exchange
    “The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for NVIDIA (NVDA) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NVDA%2FUSD.” · market rules ↗

Does not count

  • Exactly equal to $190 does not count as YES
    “If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No".” · market rules ↗
  • NVDA closes at exactly $190.00our reading
  • NVDA reaches $191 intraday but closes at $189our reading
  • NVDA closes above $190 on September 29 but the final trading day is September 30our reading

Watch out

  • HIGHA Yes here may pay less than a dollar
    “If NVIDIA (NVDA) does not trade at all during the regular session of the final trading day of the month, the market will resolve 50-50.” · market rules ↗
  • WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
  • NOTEAn outside data source decides, with a named backup
    “The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for NVIDIA (NVDA) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NVDA%2FUSD.” · market rules ↗

Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.

The rules, in plain English

This market resolves to Yes if NVIDIA's closing price on the last trading day of September 2026 is higher than $190. Otherwise it resolves to No. If the price is exactly $190, the market resolves to No. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If NVIDIA does not trade at all during the regular session on the final trading day of the month, the market resolves 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price is the Pyth Close value of the 1-minute candle for the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the session is shortened (for example, due to a market holiday), the Pyth Close value of the 1-minute candle for the final minute of that shortened session will be used. If there is no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle at the end of regular trading hours, the market will use the last valid Pyth price during regular trading hours as the closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange will be used. If there is a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action during the time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after adjustments have been applied. The resolution source is Pyth, specifically the Close values for the relevant 1-minute candle for NVIDIA available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NVDA%2FUSD.

What the rules leave open

  • What happens if NVIDIA is delisted or ceases to exist before September 2026?
    closest the rules come: “If NVIDIA (NVDA) does not trade at all during the regular session of the final trading day of the month, the market will resolve 50-50.” · market rules ↗
  • How will the target price be adjusted if there is a stock split (the exact adjustment formula is not specified)?
    closest the rules come: “The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits.” · market rules ↗