Sharpbook
Polymarket· finance· open· settles 2026-09-30

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $270 end of September?

Open on Polymarket ↗Yes last at 6¢

The catch

  • If the closing price equals exactly $270, the market resolves to No.
    “If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No".” · market rules ↗

Pays out only if

  • NVIDIA stock closes above $270 on the final trading day of September 2026.
    “This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on the final trading day of September 2026 is higher than the listed price.” · market rules ↗
  • Has to happen during September 2026
    “This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on the final trading day of September 2026 is higher than the listed price.” · market rules ↗
  • Counts as done when: Pyth Close value of the 1-minute candle at the final minute of regular trading
    “For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange.” · market rules ↗
  • Decided by: Pyth, primary exchange
    “The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for NVIDIA (NVDA) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NVDA%2FUSD.” · market rules ↗

Does not count

  • Closing price exactly equal to $270
    “If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No".” · market rules ↗
  • NVIDIA closes at exactly $270.00our reading
  • NVIDIA trades above $270 intraday but closes at or below $270our reading
  • NVIDIA closes above $270 on any day in September other than the final trading dayour reading

Watch out

  • HIGHA Yes here may pay less than a dollar
    “If NVIDIA (NVDA) does not trade at all during the regular session of the final trading day of the month, the market will resolve 50-50.” · market rules ↗
  • WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
  • NOTEAn outside data source decides, with a named backup
    “The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for NVIDIA (NVDA) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NVDA%2FUSD.” · market rules ↗

Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.

The rules, in plain English

This market resolves to Yes if NVIDIA's closing price on the last trading day of September 2026 is higher than $270. Otherwise it resolves to No. If the price equals exactly $270, it resolves to No. Closing prices are used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If NVIDIA does not trade at all during the regular session on the final trading day of the month, the market resolves 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price is the Pyth Close value of the 1-minute candle for the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the session is shortened (for example, due to a market holiday), the Pyth Close value of the 1-minute candle for the final minute of that shortened session is used. If there is no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle at the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market uses the last valid Pyth price during regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange where the security trades is used to determine the closing price for that day. If there is a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the security during the time frame, this market resolves based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution is based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the Close values for the relevant 1-minute candle for NVIDIA available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NVDA%2FUSD.

What the rules leave open

  • How stock split adjustments to the $270 target price will be calculated or rounded
    closest the rules come: “The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits.” · market rules ↗
  • What happens if NVIDIA is delisted, acquired, or ceases to exist as a publicly traded entity before the final trading day