Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $280 end of September?
The catch
The market resolves No if NVDA closes exactly at $280.
“If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No".” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
NVIDIA stock must close above $280 on the final trading day of September 2026.
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on the final trading day of September 2026 is higher than the listed price.” · market rules ↗Has to happen during September 2026
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on the final trading day of September 2026 is higher than the listed price.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: Pyth Close value of the 1-minute candle at the final minute of regular trading
“For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange.” · market rules ↗Decided by: Pyth, primary exchange
“The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for NVIDIA (NVDA) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NVDA%2FUSD.” · market rules ↗
Does not count
A closing price exactly equal to $280 does not count as YES
“If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No".” · market rules ↗- NVDA closes at exactly $280.00our reading
- NVDA closes above $280 in after-hours trading but not during regular hoursour reading
- NVDA closes above $280 on the last calendar day of September but not the last trading dayour reading
Watch out
HIGHA Yes here may pay less than a dollar
“If NVIDIA (NVDA) does not trade at all during the regular session of the final trading day of the month, the market will resolve 50-50.” · market rules ↗- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
NOTEAn outside data source decides, with a named backup
“The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for NVIDIA (NVDA) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NVDA%2FUSD.” · market rules ↗
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
This market resolves to Yes if NVIDIA's closing price on the last trading day of September 2026 is higher than $280. Otherwise it resolves to No. If the closing price equals exactly $280, the market resolves to No. Closing prices will be taken exactly as Pyth publishes them, without rounding. If NVIDIA does not trade at all during regular hours on the final trading day of the month, the market resolves 50-50. For a normal full trading session, the closing price is the Pyth Close value of the 1-minute candle for the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the session is shortened (like for a market holiday), the Pyth Close value of the 1-minute candle for the final minute of that shortened session will be used. If there is no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle at the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price during regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical problem, the official closing price published by the primary exchange where the security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. If there is a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the security during the time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as shown on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the Close values for the relevant 1-minute candle for NVIDIA available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NVDA%2FUSD.
What the rules leave open
What happens if NVIDIA is delisted or ceases to exist before September 2026
closest the rules come: “If NVIDIA (NVDA) does not trade at all during the regular session of the final trading day of the month, the market will resolve 50-50.” · market rules ↗How the target price of $280 is adjusted if a stock split occurs (the proportional adjustment method is not specified)
closest the rules come: “In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits.” · market rules ↗