Pakistan military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026?

The rules, in plain English

This market resolves Yes if Pakistan takes a qualifying military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM Yemen Standard Time. Otherwise it resolves No. A qualifying military action means an air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike launched by Pakistan that directly hits Yemen. Air strikes include bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. Surface-to-surface missile strikes include one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles like cruise or ballistic missiles. The following do NOT count as qualifying military actions: munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; surface-to-air missiles; small-arms fire; ground incursions; cyber operations; naval gunfire and artillery fire; howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (like MLRS systems); minor surface-to-surface strikes including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; any threat, authorization, or announcement that has not been executed. Intercepted or destroyed munitions do not count. Debris, fragments, or wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Yemen do not count as a military action regardless of damage. Yemen means the land territory of Yemen, including its internal waters. Yemen's maritime territory and airspace do not count. Where borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under Yemen's de facto control as of market creation qualifies. The occurrence, attribution, and timing will be determined based on consensus of information from the resolution sources. Where sources conflict on occurrence, attribution, or timing, the market stays open until either: (i) confirmation based on consensus from resolution sources or (ii) 3 full calendar days (Yemen Standard Time) from the first credible report. If this period extends past the end date, the market remains open to allow 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be decided based on all information available from resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or evidence will govern where contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources are official information from the governments and militaries of Pakistan and Yemen and a consensus of credible reporting.

What the rules leave open

• What constitutes 'minor' versus qualifying surface-to-surface strikes (the boundary between excluded short-range loitering munitions/FPV drones/ATGMs and included one-way attack drones)source

  closest the rules come: “Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;” · market rules ↗
• Whether strikes must be launched from Pakistani territory or can be launched by Pakistan from third-party territorysource

  closest the rules come: “A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Pakistan, that directly impacts Yemen.” · market rules ↗
• What level of attribution certainty is required (claimed responsibility, forensic evidence, government confirmation, etc.)source

  closest the rules come: “The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources.” · market rules ↗