Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $10,000 (HIGH) in December?
The catch
Only the 1-minute candle high price counts, not closing or intraday prices shown elsewhere.
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price.” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
The S&P 500 index reaches or exceeds $10,000 on any 1-minute candle high during December 2026.
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price.” · market rules ↗Has to happen during December 2026
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: Any 1-minute candle showing high price at or above $10,000
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price.” · market rules ↗Decided by: Yahoo Finance, Wall Street Journal Markets, Google Finance, Market Watch
“The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/. If, at market close on the final day of trading of December 2026, price data is unavailable from Yahoo Finance for any relevant period, price data from Wall Street Journal Markets, Google Finance, and Market Watch will be used, in that order.” · market rules ↗
Does not count
Prices recorded when the market is officially closed (holidays or maintenance breaks)
“Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.” · market rules ↗Prices outside regular trading hours of the primary exchange
“All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.” · market rules ↗- S&P 500 closes above $10,000 but no 1-minute candle high reaches itour reading
- S&P 500 hits $10,000 in after-hours or pre-market tradingour reading
Watch out
HIGHA Yes here may pay less than a dollar
“If price data is not available for the relevant period from any of these sources by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.” · market rules ↗- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
Read on 2026-09-11. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
This market resolves to Yes if any 1-minute candle for the S&P 500 shows a high price at or above $10,000 between market creation and the final day of trading in December 2026. Otherwise it resolves to No. Only prices during regular trading hours of the primary exchange, as shown in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute data, count. Periods when the market is officially closed (holidays or maintenance) do not count. All times are local to the primary exchange. The resolution source is Yahoo Finance's 1-minute chart data for S&P 500. If Yahoo Finance data is unavailable for any relevant period at market close on the final trading day of December 2026, Wall Street Journal Markets, Google Finance, and Market Watch will be used in that order. If no data is available from any source by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves based on available data at that time.
What the rules leave open
What constitutes 'regular trading hours' for the S&P 500 is not explicitly defined
closest the rules come: “All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.” · market rules ↗What happens if Yahoo Finance shows different data than the fallback sources for the same period
closest the rules come: “If, at market close on the final day of trading of December 2026, price data is unavailable from Yahoo Finance for any relevant period, price data from Wall Street Journal Markets, Google Finance, and Market Watch will be used, in that order.” · market rules ↗