Sharpbook
Polymarket· finance· open· settles 2026-12-31

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December?

Open on Polymarket ↗Yes last at 3¢

The catch

  • Only the 1-minute candle's 'Low' price counts, not the closing or intraday trading price.
    “This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price.” · market rules ↗

Pays out only if

  • The S&P 500 index must show a 1-minute candle Low price at or below $4,500.
    “This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price.” · market rules ↗
  • Has to happen during December 2026
    “This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price.” · market rules ↗
  • Counts as done when: Any 1-minute candle showing a Low price at or below $4,500
    “This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price.” · market rules ↗
  • Decided by: Yahoo Finance, Wall Street Journal Markets, Google Finance, Market Watch
    “The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/. If, at market close on the final day of trading of December 2026, price data is unavailable from Yahoo Finance for any relevant period, price data from Wall Street Journal Markets, Google Finance, and Market Watch will be used, in that order.” · market rules ↗

Does not count

  • Prices recorded when the market is officially closed (holidays or maintenance breaks) do not count.
    “Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.” · market rules ↗
  • S&P 500 trades at or below $4,500 but the 1-minute candle Low price stays above $4,500our reading
  • S&P 500 hits $4,500 during after-hours or pre-market trading outside regular hoursour reading
  • S&P 500 hits $4,500 on a holiday when the market is closedour reading

Watch out

  • HIGHA Yes here may pay less than a dollar
    “If price data is not available for the relevant period from any of these sources by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.” · market rules ↗
  • WATCHOne publication decides the outcome
    “The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/. If, at market close on the final day of trading of December 2026, price data is unavailable from Yahoo Finance for any relevant period, price data from Wall Street Journal Markets, Google Finance, and Market Watch will be used, in that order.” · market rules ↗
  • WATCHSome obvious wins don't count

Read on 2026-09-11. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.

The rules, in plain English

This market resolves to Yes if any 1-minute candle for the S&P 500 index shows a Low price at or below $4,500 at any point between when the market was created and the close of the final trading day of December 2026. Otherwise it resolves to No. Only prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange, as shown in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval data, count. Periods when the market is officially closed, like holidays or maintenance breaks, do not count. All times are local to the primary exchange where the index trades. The resolution source is Yahoo Finance's 1-minute chart data for S&P 500 (SPX). If Yahoo Finance data is unavailable at market close on the final trading day of December 2026, Wall Street Journal Markets, Google Finance, and Market Watch will be used in that order. If no source has data for the relevant period by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves based on whatever data is available at that time.

What the rules leave open

  • What constitutes 'market creation' as the start of the observation period is not defined.
    closest the rules come: “This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price.” · market rules ↗
  • Whether the final day of trading for December 2026 is December 31 or an earlier date (if December 31 is not a trading day) is not explicitly stated.
    closest the rules come: “This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price.” · market rules ↗