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Polymarket· finance· open· settles 2026-12-31

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?

Open on Polymarket ↗Yes last at 9¢

The catch

  • Only the 1-minute candle low price counts, not intraday lows shown on other timeframes.
    “This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price.” · market rules ↗

Pays out only if

  • The S&P 500 index shows a low price of $6,200 or below on any 1-minute candle.
    “This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price.” · market rules ↗
  • Has to happen during December 2026
    “This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price.” · market rules ↗
  • Counts as done when: 1-minute candle shows low price at or below $6,200
    “This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price.” · market rules ↗
  • Decided by: Yahoo Finance
    “The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.” · market rules ↗

Does not count

  • Prices during periods when the market is officially closed (holidays or maintenance breaks)
    “Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.” · market rules ↗
  • Prices outside regular trading hours of the primary exchange
    “All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.” · market rules ↗
  • S&P 500 hits $6,200 or below on a 5-minute or daily chart but not on any 1-minute candle lowour reading
  • S&P 500 hits $6,200 during pre-market or after-hours trading outside regular hoursour reading

Watch out

  • WATCHOne publication decides the outcome
    “The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.” · market rules ↗
  • WATCHSome obvious wins don't count

Read on 2026-09-11. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.

The rules, in plain English

This market resolves to Yes if any 1-minute candle for the S&P 500 shows a low price at or below $6,200 between market creation and the final day of trading in December 2026. Otherwise it resolves to No. Only prices during regular trading hours of the primary exchange, as shown in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute data, count. Periods when the market is officially closed (holidays or maintenance) do not count. All times are local to the primary exchange. The resolution source is Yahoo Finance's 1-minute chart data for S&P 500 at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/. If Yahoo Finance data is unavailable at market close on the final trading day of December 2026, Wall Street Journal Markets, Google Finance, and Market Watch will be used in that order. If no source has data by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves based on available data at that time.

What the rules leave open

  • Whether the market creation date is in December 2026 or earlier, affecting the start of the observation window
    closest the rules come: “This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price.” · market rules ↗
  • What happens if all fallback sources also lack data for the relevant period by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
    closest the rules come: “If price data is not available for the relevant period from any of these sources by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.” · market rules ↗
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?: the rules explained · Sharpbook