US announces yen intervention by December 31, 2026?
The catch
The yen purchase must occur after July 31, 2026, even though announcements count from market creation.
“Any qualifying announcement made within this market's time frame will count, provided the underlying yen purchase occurred after July 31, 2026.” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
The US government announces it intervened in foreign exchange markets to support the Japanese yen.
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government announces that it has intervened in the foreign exchange market to support the Japanese yen between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.” · market rules ↗Has to happen before January 1, 2027
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government announces that it has intervened in the foreign exchange market to support the Japanese yen between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: announcement made through official channels
“A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity.” · market rules ↗Decided by: US Treasury, Federal Reserve, White House, their official representatives acting in an official capacity
“Resolution will be based on official statements from the US Treasury, Federal Reserve, White House, or their official representatives acting in an official capacity.” · market rules ↗
Does not count
Statements of concern, readiness, or intent to intervene without actual intervention
“Statements of concern, readiness, or intent to intervene; swap lines or other currency arrangements absent a qualifying yen purchase; and intervention by other governments without US participation will not qualify.” · market rules ↗Swap lines or other currency arrangements without a qualifying yen purchase
“Statements of concern, readiness, or intent to intervene; swap lines or other currency arrangements absent a qualifying yen purchase; and intervention by other governments without US participation will not qualify.” · market rules ↗Intervention by other governments without US participation
“Statements of concern, readiness, or intent to intervene; swap lines or other currency arrangements absent a qualifying yen purchase; and intervention by other governments without US participation will not qualify.” · market rules ↗Statements made incidentally or informally not intended for official communication
“Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.” · market rules ↗
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
This market resolves to Yes if the US government announces it intervened in foreign exchange markets to support the Japanese yen between when the market was created and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise it resolves to No. A qualifying announcement must show that (i) the US purchased Japanese yen in the foreign exchange market and (ii) the purchase was done as an exchange-rate intervention, either stated explicitly or clearly shown by context. The intervention can be unilateral or coordinated with other governments, but the US must participate directly. Any qualifying announcement made within the market's time frame counts, as long as the actual yen purchase happened after July 31, 2026. Statements of concern, readiness, or intent to intervene; swap lines or other currency arrangements without a qualifying yen purchase; and intervention by other governments without US participation do not qualify. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels by someone acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. Resolution is based on official statements from the US Treasury, Federal Reserve, White House, or their official representatives acting in an official capacity.
What the rules leave open
What counts as 'market creation' - the start date for when announcements can be made
closest the rules come: “This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government announces that it has intervened in the foreign exchange market to support the Japanese yen between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.” · market rules ↗Whether the announcement must specify the exact date of the yen purchase or just that it occurred after July 31, 2026
closest the rules come: “Any qualifying announcement made within this market's time frame will count, provided the underlying yen purchase occurred after July 31, 2026.” · market rules ↗How to determine if a yen purchase occurred after July 31, 2026 if the announcement doesn't specify the date
closest the rules come: “Any qualifying announcement made within this market's time frame will count, provided the underlying yen purchase occurred after July 31, 2026.” · market rules ↗