US recession by end of 2026?
The catch
Advance estimates count; revisions after initial release don't undo a YES resolution.
“Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes".” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth are reported, or NBER announces a recession occurred in 2025-2026.
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if either of the following conditions is met: 1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.” · market rules ↗Has to happen before July 1, 2027
“If the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2026 has not been released by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available releases at that time.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: BEA releases advance estimate for Q4 2026 or NBER announces recession
“This market will remain open until either i) one of the specified conditions is met; or ii) the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2026 is released.” · market rules ↗Decided by: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
“The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA's estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product” · market rules ↗
Does not count
Negative GDP quarters before Q2 2025 do not count
“The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).” · market rules ↗NBER announcements made after the Q4 2026 advance estimate is released do not count
“The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.” · market rules ↗- Two consecutive negative quarters occur, but later revisions show one or both were actually positiveour reading
- NBER announces a recession that started in 2027 or laterour reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
Read on 2026-09-11. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
This market resolves to Yes if either: 1. Two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 show negative seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from the previous quarter, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2. The National Bureau of Economic Research publicly announces that a recession occurred in the United States at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the advance estimate for Q4 2026 is released. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. Advance estimates count. For example, if the advance estimate for Q3 2025 is negative and Q2 2025's most recent estimate is also negative, the market resolves to Yes. If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for Q3 2025 is negative, the market stays open until the advance estimate for Q4 2026 is published, then resolves to Yes if Q4 2026 is negative or if NBER declares a recession by then. The market remains open until either one of the conditions is met or the advance estimate for Q4 2026 is released. If the advance estimate for Q4 2026 has not been released by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves based on available releases at that time. The resolution source is official announcements from NBER and BEA's estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters at https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
What the rules leave open
Whether a single negative quarter before Q2 2025 can combine with a negative Q2 2025 to trigger YES
closest the rules come: “The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).” · market rules ↗Whether NBER must announce the recession occurred specifically during 2025-2026, or just announce it by the deadline regardless of when the recession occurred
closest the rules come: “The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.” · market rules ↗