US recession by end of 2027?
The catch
Advance estimates count; market doesn't wait for revisions to settle two-quarter rule.
“Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2026 was negative, and the Q2 2026's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes".” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
Either BEA reports two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth Q2 2025-Q4 2027, or NBER announces a recession occurred in 2025-2027.
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if either of the following conditions is met: 1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027.” · market rules ↗Has to happen during 2025, 2026, or 2027
“The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: BEA advance estimate for Q4 2027 released or NBER recession announcement
“This market will remain open until either i) one of the specified conditions is met; or ii) the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2027 is released.” · market rules ↗Decided by: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
“The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA's estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product” · market rules ↗
Does not count
- Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth occur, but only after Q4 2027our reading
- NBER announces a recession in 2025-2027, but the announcement comes after the Q4 2027 advance estimate is releasedour reading
- Two quarters of negative GDP in the advance estimates, but later revisions show one or both were positiveour reading
- A recession occurs in 2024 or earlier 2025 (before Q2 2025)our reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
Read on 2026-09-11. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
This market resolves to Yes if either: 1. The BEA reports that seasonally adjusted annualized quarterly US real GDP growth was negative (less than 0.0%) for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive). 2. The NBER publicly announces that a recession occurred in the United States at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. Advance estimates count. For example, if the advance estimate for Q3 2026 is negative when released, and Q2 2026's most recent estimate is also negative, the market resolves to Yes. If on December 31, 2027 the latest estimate for Q3 2026 is negative, the market stays open until the advance estimate of Q4 2027 is published, then resolves to Yes if Q4 2027 is negative or if NBER declares a recession by then. The market remains open until either one of the conditions is met or the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2027 is released. If the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2026 has not been released by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves based on available releases at that time. The resolution source is official announcements from the NBER and the BEA's estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
What the rules leave open
Whether Q1 2025 can count as the first of two consecutive negative quarters (if Q1 2025 negative and Q2 2025 negative).
closest the rules come: “The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).” · market rules ↗What happens if the Q4 2027 advance estimate is not released by June 30, 2028 (only Q4 2026 fallback is specified).
closest the rules come: “If the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2026 has not been released by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available releases at that time.” · market rules ↗