US Dollar / Turkish Lira (USD/TRY) Up or Down on September 11?
The catch
Resolves based on comparison to the most recent prior reference day, not a fixed baseline.
“This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Turkish Lira (USD/TRY) on September 11, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day.” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
The USD/TRY exchange rate on September 11, 2026 must be higher than the most recent prior reference day.
“This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Turkish Lira (USD/TRY) on September 11, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day.” · market rules ↗Decided at the event on September 11, 2026
“This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Turkish Lira (USD/TRY) on September 11, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: Close value of Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET on September 11, 2026
“For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date.” · market rules ↗Decided by: Pyth
“The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Turkish Lira (USD/TRY) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FTRY.” · market rules ↗
Does not count
- USD/TRY increases compared to a fixed date (e.g., market creation date) but decreases compared to the most recent prior reference dayour reading
- USD/TRY increases intraday on September 11 but the 4:59 PM ET close is lower than the prior reference dayour reading
- USD/TRY increases on September 11 but September 11 is not a trading day per Pyth's scheduleour reading
Watch out
HIGHA Yes here may pay less than a dollar
“If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50.” · market rules ↗- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
NOTEAn outside data source decides, with a named backup
“The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Turkish Lira (USD/TRY) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FTRY.” · market rules ↗
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
This market resolves to "Up" if the USD/TRY exchange rate on September 11, 2026 is higher than the most recent prior reference day. It resolves to "Down" if it is lower. If the two prices are exactly equal, it resolves 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle at 4:59 PM ET on that date. Reference prices are used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day when the USD/TRY trading session includes 4:59 PM ET according to Pyth's trading-hours schedule. For example, a Monday market would normally refer to the previous Friday, since weekend sessions don't include 4:59 PM ET; if that Friday were a holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET candle on any day needing a reference price (including September 11, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours), the last valid Pyth price published before 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day (due to outage, data failure, or technical disruption), the next most recent prior reference day with a valid Pyth price will be used instead. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on September 11, 2026, or if September 11, 2026 is not a trading day per Pyth's schedule, this market resolves 50-50. The resolution source is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for USD/TRY available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FTRY. Historical 1-minute candles can be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
What the rules leave open
What constitutes a 'valid Pyth price' versus an invalid one is not defined.
closest the rules come: “If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including September 11, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price.” · market rules ↗How to determine which day is the 'most recent prior reference day' if multiple consecutive days lack valid Pyth prices is not fully specified.
closest the rules come: “If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place.” · market rules ↗