Polymarket· finance· open· settles 2026-09-10

US Dollar / South African Rand (USD/ZAR) Up or Down on September 10?

Open on Polymarket ↗Yes last at 50¢

The catch

Resolves based on comparison to the most recent prior reference day, not a fixed baseline.
“This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / South African Rand (USD/ZAR) on September 10, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day.” — market rules ↗

Pays out only if

The USD/ZAR exchange rate on September 10, 2026 must be higher than the most recent prior reference day.
“This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / South African Rand (USD/ZAR) on September 10, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day.” — market rules ↗
Decided at the event on September 10, 2026
“This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / South African Rand (USD/ZAR) on September 10, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day.” — market rules ↗
Counts as done when: Close value of Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET on September 10, 2026
“For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date.” — market rules ↗
Decided by: Pyth
“The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / South African Rand (USD/ZAR) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FZAR.” — market rules ↗

Does not count

USD/ZAR rises compared to a fixed date (e.g., market creation date) but falls compared to the most recent prior reference dayour reading
USD/ZAR rises intraday on September 10 but the 4:59 PM ET close is lower than the prior reference dayour reading
USD/ZAR rises according to a different data source but Pyth shows it downour reading
The prior reference day is several days before September 10 due to holidays/weekends, and the price is up compared to September 9 but down compared to that earlier reference dayour reading

Watch out

HIGHA Yes here may pay less than a dollar
“If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50.” — market rules ↗
WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
NOTEAn outside data source decides, with a named backup
“The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / South African Rand (USD/ZAR) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FZAR.” — market rules ↗

Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only — not a prediction.

The rules, in plain English

This market resolves to "Up" if the USD/ZAR exchange rate on September 10, 2026 is higher than the most recent prior reference day. It resolves to "Down" if it is lower. If the two prices are exactly equal, it resolves 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle at 4:59 PM ET on that date. Reference prices are used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day when the USD/ZAR trading session includes 4:59 PM ET according to Pyth's trading-hours schedule. For example, a Monday market would normally refer to the previous Friday, since weekend sessions don't include 4:59 PM ET; if that Friday were a holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET candle on any day needing a reference price (including September 10, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours), the last valid Pyth price published before 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day (due to outage, data failure, or technical disruption), the next most recent prior reference day with a valid Pyth price will be used instead. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on September 10, 2026, or if September 10, 2026 is not a trading day under Pyth's schedule, this market resolves 50-50. The resolution source is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for USD/ZAR available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FZAR. Historical 1-minute candles can be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Original rules text

Read from the market rules ↗.

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / South African Rand (USD/ZAR) on September 10, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / South African Rand (USD/ZAR), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including September 10, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on September 10, 2026, or if September 10, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / South African Rand (USD/ZAR) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FZAR. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Source ↗

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