Will Amcha Yisrael win 3.25-4% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?
The catch
Votes count even if Amcha Yisrael runs in a joint list or merges with another party.
“If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.” — market rules ↗
Pays out only if
Amcha Yisrael wins between 3.25% and 4% of valid votes in the 2026 Israeli Knesset elections.
“This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.” — market rules ↗Has to happen before November 1, 2027
“If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.” — market rules ↗Counts as done when: official election results published
“This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).” — market rules ↗Decided by: consensus of credible reporting, Central Elections Committee of Israel
“This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).” — market rules ↗
Does not count
- Amcha Yisrael wins 3.25-4% but as part of a joint list that overall wins more than 4%our reading
- Amcha Yisrael merges with another party and the merged entity wins 3.25-4% but Amcha Yisrael's contribution alone was outside that rangeour reading
- Amcha Yisrael wins exactly 3.25% (resolves to higher bracket, not this one)our reading
- Results show Amcha Yisrael in the 3.25-4% range but are not definitively known by October 31, 2027our reading
Watch out
HIGHA Yes here may pay less than a dollar
“If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.” — market rules ↗- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only — not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market resolves based on the percentage of the national vote won by the Amcha Yisrael party in the Israeli Knesset elections. The percentage is calculated as the number of valid votes for Amcha Yisrael divided by the total number of valid votes cast. Votes count whether or not Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats. If Amcha Yisrael runs as part of a joint candidate list with other parties, all votes for the joint list count. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party before the election, all votes for the merged party or any joint list it runs on count. If the percentage falls exactly on a bracket boundary, the market resolves to the higher range bracket. If results are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to the lowest range bracket. The market resolves based on election results from a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, it resolves based solely on official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel.
What the rules leave open
What happens if Amcha Yisrael does not contest the election at all (neither independently nor as part of a joint list or merger)?
closest the rules come: “If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.” — market rules ↗What constitutes 'definitively known' results for the October 31, 2027 deadline?
closest the rules come: “If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.” — market rules ↗If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party, how is it determined that the merged entity is indeed the continuation of Amcha Yisrael versus a completely new party?
closest the rules come: “If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.” — market rules ↗