Will Amcha Yisrael win 4-5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?
The catch
Votes count even if Amcha Yisrael runs in a joint list or merges with another party.
“If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.” — market rules ↗
Pays out only if
Amcha Yisrael wins between 4% and 5% of valid votes in the 2026 Israeli Knesset elections.
“This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.” — market rules ↗Has to happen before November 1, 2027
“If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.” — market rules ↗Counts as done when: official election results published
“This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).” — market rules ↗Decided by: consensus of credible reporting, Central Elections Committee of Israel
“This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).” — market rules ↗
Does not count
- Amcha Yisrael wins 4-5% but runs as part of a joint list with other parties (all joint list votes count)our reading
- Amcha Yisrael merges with another party before the election (all merged party votes count)our reading
- Amcha Yisrael wins 4-5% but fails to pass the electoral threshold for Knesset seats (votes still count)our reading
- The percentage falls exactly on 4.0% or 5.0% (resolves to higher bracket)our reading
Watch out
HIGHA Yes here may pay less than a dollar
“If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.” — market rules ↗- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only — not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
Legislative elections are expected in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market resolves based on what percentage of the national vote Amcha Yisrael wins in the Israeli Knesset elections. The percentage is calculated as valid votes for Amcha Yisrael divided by total valid votes cast. Votes count whether or not Amcha Yisrael passes the threshold to win seats. If Amcha Yisrael runs as part of a joint list with other parties, all votes for that joint list count. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party before the election, all votes for the merged party or any joint list it runs in count. If the percentage falls exactly on a bracket boundary, the market resolves to the higher bracket. If results are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to the lowest bracket. The market resolves based on election results from a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, it resolves based solely on official results from the Central Elections Committee of Israel.
What the rules leave open
What happens if the value falls exactly on 5.0% - does it count as the 4-5% bracket or the next higher bracket?
closest the rules come: “If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.” — market rules ↗What constitutes 'definitively known' results for the October 31, 2027 deadline.
closest the rules come: “If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.” — market rules ↗