Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?
The catch
Only resolves YES if an independent wins; third-party candidates like Greens or Libertarians do not count.
“Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
An independent candidate wins the 2026 Nebraska U.S. Senate election.
“This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Nebraska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.” · market rules ↗Decided at the event on November 3, 2026
“This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Nebraska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: when all three sources call the race for the same candidate, or official certification
“This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven't called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.” · market rules ↗Decided by: Associated Press, Fox News, NBC
“The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven't called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.” · market rules ↗
Does not count
Third-party candidates (Greens, Libertarian) do not count as independents
“Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.” · market rules ↗Candidates who run as independents but are affiliated with Democratic or Republican parties are not counted as Democrats or Republicans
“Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the "Democrat" or "Republican" options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.” · market rules ↗- A Green Party candidate wins the electionour reading
- A Libertarian candidate wins the electionour reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
Read on 2026-10-02. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
This market resolves based on who wins the 2026 Nebraska U.S. Senate election, including any run-offs. A candidate represents a party if they are that party's nominee. Candidates other than Democratic or Republican nominees (like Greens, Libertarians, or independents) may be added later. Candidates running as independents are not counted as Democrats or Republicans, even if they have party affiliations. Candidate names may be listed for convenience. If a named candidate is replaced as their party's nominee before election day, the name will be updated and the market resolves based on the replacement. The market resolves when Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three don't call it for the same candidate, it resolves based on official certification.
What the rules leave open
Whether a candidate who files as independent but receives endorsement from a major party still counts as independent
closest the rules come: “Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the "Democrat" or "Republican" options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.” · market rules ↗What constitutes the distinction between an independent and a third-party candidate (e.g., Green, Libertarian)
closest the rules come: “Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.” · market rules ↗