Will Andy Burnham say "Mr Speaker" 30+ times during the next PMQ?
The catch
Only counts if Andy Burnham is Prime Minister and participates in PMQs.
“If Andy Burnham ceases to be Prime Minister for any length of time by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No".” — market rules ↗
Pays out only if
Andy Burnham says "Mr Speaker" 30 or more times during his next PMQs participation.
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if Andy Burnham says the listed term during the next Prime Minister's Question Time event he participates in.” — market rules ↗Has to happen before October 1, 2026
“If no such Prime Minister's Question Time event happens or Andy Burnham does not participate in a Prime Minister's Question Time event by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No".” — market rules ↗Counts as done when: when Andy Burnham says the term during the next PMQs he participates in
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if Andy Burnham says the listed term during the next Prime Minister's Question Time event he participates in.” — market rules ↗Decided by: audio/video of the events
“The resolution source will be audio/video of the events.” — market rules ↗
Does not count
Speeches, events, or comments outside of scheduled Prime Minister's Question Time events
“Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of named, scheduled events will not qualify toward this market's resolution.” — market rules ↗Events after Andy Burnham ceases to be Prime Minister
“If Andy Burnham ceases to be Prime Minister for any length of time by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No".” — market rules ↗- Andy Burnham says "Mr Speaker" 30+ times but is no longer Prime Ministerour reading
- Andy Burnham says "Mr Speaker" 30+ times in a different parliamentary event or speechour reading
Watch out
WATCHOne publication decides the outcome
“The resolution source will be audio/video of the events.” — market rules ↗- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only — not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
Andy Burnham is scheduled to participate in Prime Minister's Questions (PMQs) in the Commons Chamber every Wednesday. This market resolves to "Yes" if Andy Burnham says "Mr Speaker" 30 or more times during the next Prime Minister's Question Time event he participates in. Otherwise, it resolves to "No". If no Prime Minister's Question Time event happens or Andy Burnham does not participate in one by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" resolves to "Yes" and all other brackets resolve to "No". If Andy Burnham ceases to be Prime Minister for any length of time by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" resolves to "Yes" and all other brackets resolve to "No". This market is explicitly about scheduled events titled "Prime Minister's Question Time" featuring Andy Burnham. Speeches, events, or comments outside of named, scheduled events will not qualify. The resolution source will be audio/video of the events. For full rules, see the linked contract document.
What the rules leave open
Whether variations like "Mister Speaker" or "Mr. Speaker" count as the same term
closest the rules come: “This market will resolve to "Yes" if Andy Burnham says the listed term during the next Prime Minister's Question Time event he participates in.” — market rules ↗Whether the count includes interruptions or only formal speaking turns
What happens if Andy Burnham temporarily ceases to be PM and then returns before the deadline
closest the rules come: “If Andy Burnham ceases to be Prime Minister for any length of time by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No".” — market rules ↗