Sharpbook
Polymarket· pop-culture· open· settles 2026-09-16

Will Andy Burnham say "Northern Ireland" during the next PMQ?

Open on Polymarket ↗Yes last at 26¢

The catch

  • Only the next PMQ that Burnham participates in counts, not any subsequent ones.
    “This market will resolve to "Yes" if Andy Burnham says the listed term during the next Prime Minister's Question Time event he participates in.” — market rules ↗

Pays out only if

  • Andy Burnham says "Northern Ireland" during the next Prime Minister's Question Time event he participates in.
    “This market will resolve to "Yes" if Andy Burnham says the listed term during the next Prime Minister's Question Time event he participates in.” — market rules ↗
  • Has to happen before October 1, 2026
    “If no such Prime Minister's Question Time event happens or Andy Burnham does not participate in a Prime Minister's Question Time event by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No".” — market rules ↗
  • Counts as done when: when Burnham says the term during the PMQ event
    “This market will resolve to "Yes" if Andy Burnham says the listed term during the next Prime Minister's Question Time event he participates in.” — market rules ↗
  • Decided by: audio/video of the events
    “The resolution source will be audio/video of the events.” — market rules ↗

Does not count

  • Speeches, events, or comments outside of named, scheduled Prime Minister's Question Time events
    “Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of named, scheduled events will not qualify toward this market's resolution.” — market rules ↗
  • Any PMQ events after the next one Burnham participates in
    “This market will resolve to "Yes" if Andy Burnham says the listed term during the next Prime Minister's Question Time event he participates in.” — market rules ↗
  • Burnham says "Northern Ireland" at a PMQ event after the next one he participates inour reading
  • Burnham says "Northern Ireland" in a speech or interview outside of PMQsour reading

Watch out

  • HIGHA Yes here may pay less than a dollar
    “If no such Prime Minister's Question Time event happens or Andy Burnham does not participate in a Prime Minister's Question Time event by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No".” — market rules ↗
  • WATCHOne publication decides the outcome
    “The resolution source will be audio/video of the events.” — market rules ↗
  • WATCHSome obvious wins don't count

Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only — not a prediction.

The rules, in plain English

Andy Burnham is scheduled to participate in Prime Minister's Questions in the Commons Chamber every Wednesday. This market resolves to Yes if Andy Burnham says "Northern Ireland" during the next Prime Minister's Question Time event he participates in. Otherwise, it resolves to No. If no Prime Minister's Question Time event happens or Andy Burnham does not participate in one by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "No Qualifying Event" resolves to Yes and all other brackets resolve to No. If Andy Burnham stops being Prime Minister for any length of time by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "No Qualifying Event" resolves to Yes and all other brackets resolve to No. This market is only about scheduled events titled "Prime Minister's Question Time" featuring Andy Burnham. Speeches, events, or comments outside of named, scheduled events do not count. The resolution source is audio/video of the events.

What the rules leave open

  • Whether variations of the term (e.g., "NI", "the North of Ireland") count as saying "Northern Ireland"
    closest the rules come: “This market will resolve to "Yes" if Andy Burnham says the listed term during the next Prime Minister's Question Time event he participates in.” — market rules ↗
  • Whether Burnham must say the exact phrase or if it counts when embedded in a longer phrase
    closest the rules come: “This market will resolve to "Yes" if Andy Burnham says the listed term during the next Prime Minister's Question Time event he participates in.” — market rules ↗
  • What counts as "participating" in a PMQ event (must he speak, or does attendance count)
    closest the rules come: “This market will resolve to "Yes" if Andy Burnham says the listed term during the next Prime Minister's Question Time event he participates in.” — market rules ↗